Predictions / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Newport City vs Llantwit Major

Newport City vs Llantwit Major Strong steam move across 5/9 sportsbooks on Llantwit Major

Newport City Newport City
Feb 20, 2026 - 19:30 2H
1
1
43% 25% 31%
Llantwit Major Llantwit Major

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite
Newport City Balanced match
Model probability
43.2%
Market probability
43.5%
Market agreement
Strong
Validation
Pass

Summary:

The model and market both lean Newport City, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Llantwit Major remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Llantwit Major ↓ -11.8% 3.4 → 3.0
Move type
📈 Steam
Steam Score
59B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth
5/9
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Llantwit Major

🐢 Slow drift over 71h 53m

Open 3.51
Low / High 3.00
Current 3.00

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Llantwit Major (11.8%, 5/9) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Strong
Validation
Pass
Largest gap
Llantwit Major +2.4 pp
Breadth
5/9
Current market activity
Llantwit Major odds shortened ↓ -11.8%.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Llantwit Major.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Newport City 43.23% 43.49% -0.3 pp
Draw 25.46% 27.59% -2.1 pp
Llantwit Major 31.32% 28.92% +2.4 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

  • No value on 1X2 (Newport City vs. current odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.
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1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market
Match: 43.2% Newport City; Market consensus (3-way) 43.5%; Consensus-line EV -10.0%
No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.
⭐ Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 56.4% · No 43.6%
Value lean: BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5 Pass
Over 2.5 51.1% · Under 2.5 48.9%
Value lean: Over 2.5
1X2 Poor value
Newport City · Model probability 43.2%
Market consensus (3-way) 43.5%
Consensus-line EV: -10.0%
Best available bookmaker line: -7.6% EV
Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
1-1
Probability 12.1%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 4.0 / 10
  • Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Llantwit Major market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Llantwit Major

Odds move
3.40 → 3.00 (↓ -11.8%)
Market breadth
5/9
Steam score
59 (B)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
3.12
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Llandudno 30 26 2 2 80
2 Airbus UK 30 24 3 3 75
3 Holywell 30 18 6 6 60
4 Newtown AFC 30 15 3 12 48
5 Rhyl 30 14 4 12 46
6 Guilsfield 30 13 4 13 43
7 Mold Alexandra 30 12 5 13 41
8 Denbigh Town 30 12 4 14 40
9 Caersws 30 11 4 15 37
10 Brickfield Rangers 30 11 4 15 37
11 Holyhead Hotspur 30 10 6 14 36
12 Penrhyncoch 30 10 5 15 35
13 Buckley Town 30 9 3 18 30
14 Flint Mountain 30 9 2 19 29
15 Gresford Athletic 30 8 4 18 28
16 Ruthin Town 30 6 5 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Airbus UK 30 93 22 +71 75
2 Holywell 30 78 40 +38 60
3 Llandudno 30 77 22 +55 80
4 Denbigh Town 30 52 59 -7 40
5 Newtown AFC 30 51 49 +2 48
6 Guilsfield 30 50 48 +2 43
7 Buckley Town 30 50 77 -27 30
8 Gresford Athletic 30 47 87 -40 28
9 Caersws 30 46 51 -5 37
10 Rhyl 30 46 55 -9 46
11 Penrhyncoch 30 45 53 -8 35
12 Holyhead Hotspur 30 44 49 -5 36
13 Brickfield Rangers 30 39 49 -10 37
14 Flint Mountain 30 39 61 -22 29
15 Mold Alexandra 30 38 45 -7 41
16 Ruthin Town 30 36 64 -28 23
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