Predictions / Football / Scotland. Premiership / Rangers vs Kilmarnock

Rangers vs Kilmarnock Sharp money alert: Kilmarnock ↑ +9.1% market move detected

Rangers Rangers
Feb 04, 2026 - 19:45 1H
1
0
88% 9% 3%
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite
Rangers Dominant favourite
Model probability
88.2%
Market probability
76.0%
Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Rangers, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move
Kilmarnock ↑ +9.1% 11.0 → 12.0
Move type
📈 Steam
Steam Score
64A
Strong sharp signal
Market breadth
13/14
Phase
Sharp repricing
Ref book
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair
CLV validation
Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Kilmarnock

🐢 Slow drift over 187h 9m

Open 13.50
Low / High 6.95
Current 12.00

Market Narrative

Multi-book steam on Kilmarnock (9.1%, 13/14) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.

Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement
Weak
Validation
Warning
Largest gap
Rangers +12.3 pp
Breadth
13/14
Current market activity
Kilmarnock odds lengthened ↑ +9.1%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Rangers.

However, Kilmarnock has seen drift — odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Kilmarnock — odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Outcome Fair Market Edge
Rangers 88.25% 75.96% +12.3 pp
Draw 8.72% 15.98% -7.3 pp
Kilmarnock 3.03% 8.06% -5.0 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

Different markets price efficiency differently — 1X2 can be a pass while goals markets still show edge.

  • Possible value on 1X2: Rangers (0.0% EV at best odds)
  • Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
  • Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS No
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Moderate conviction (5/10) — one selective line, not a multi-market parlay.
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1X2 Rangers (small edge, EV 0.0%)
Match: 88.3% Rangers; Market consensus (3-way) 76.0%; Consensus-line EV 0.0%
Small positive edge on a tracked line (~0.0%), below the 2.0% default betting threshold — no Primary pick.
⭐ 1X2 Lean
Rangers · Model probability 88.3%
Market consensus (3-way) 76.0%
Consensus-line EV: 0.0%
Over / Under 2.5 Lean
Over 2.5 78.0% · Under 2.5 22.0%
Value lean: Over 2.5
Both Teams To Score Lean
Yes 46.3% · No 53.7%
Value lean: BTTS No
Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun
Most Likely
3-0
Probability 11.4%
Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.
Betting decision (model vs. market EV)
Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.
Decision strength: 5.0 / 10
  • Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)
  • No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)
  • No line above +EV threshold in tracked markets (−0.5)
O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV
Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Kilmarnock market context before kickoff

📈 Steam on Kilmarnock

Odds move
11.00 → 12.00 (↑ +9.1%)
Market breadth
13/14
Steam score
64 (A)
Current status
Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

  1. Forecast Generated
  2. Market Compared
  3. Validation Passed
  4. Closing Recorded
  5. CLV Evaluated
Entry
1.22
Closing
Pending
CLV
Pending
OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.
Check Odds at 1xBet
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heart Of Midlothian 33 21 7 5 70
2 Rangers 33 19 12 2 69
3 Celtic 33 21 4 8 67
4 Motherwell 33 14 12 7 54
5 Hibernian 33 13 12 8 51
6 Falkirk 33 13 7 13 46
7 Dundee Utd 33 9 13 11 40
8 Aberdeen 33 9 6 18 33
9 Dundee 33 8 9 16 33
10 ST Mirren 33 7 9 17 30
11 Kilmarnock 33 6 10 17 28
12 Livingston 33 1 13 19 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rangers 33 66 31 +35 69
2 Celtic 33 59 35 +24 67
3 Heart Of Midlothian 33 58 28 +30 70
4 Motherwell 33 52 29 +23 54
5 Hibernian 33 51 37 +14 51
6 Falkirk 33 45 48 -3 46
7 Dundee Utd 33 45 54 -9 40
8 Kilmarnock 33 37 65 -28 28
9 Livingston 33 35 66 -31 16
10 Dundee 33 34 53 -19 33
11 Aberdeen 33 33 48 -15 33
12 ST Mirren 33 27 48 -21 30
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Celtic 33 53.2 26.7 +26.5 67
2 Rangers 33 53.1 30.6 +22.5 69
3 Heart Of Midlothian 33 43.5 29.4 +14.1 70
4 Motherwell 33 42.9 30.6 +12.3 54
5 Hibernian 33 42.4 35.3 +7.1 51
6 Falkirk 33 38.5 38.7 -0.2 46
7 ST Mirren 33 30.2 35.4 -5.2 30
8 Dundee Utd 33 36.0 45.4 -9.4 40
9 Aberdeen 33 35.0 47.8 -12.8 33
10 Dundee 33 30.9 44.9 -14.0 33
11 Kilmarnock 33 33.7 52.8 -19.1 28
12 Livingston 33 28.8 50.8 -22.0 16
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