Aberdeen vs Celtic Sharp money alert: Draw ↑ +15.9% market move detected

Aberdeen

Feb 04, 2026 - 20:00

1.41

1.90

27% 25% 48%

Celtic

Forecast Assessment

Use caution

Favourite: Celtic Slight favourite
Model probability: 47.8%
Market probability: 66.1%
Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning

Summary:

Model and market lean the same side on Celtic, but pricing gaps warrant caution.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Draw ↑ +15.9% 4.1 → 4.75
Move type: 🔥 Strong steam
Steam Score: 89A+
Strong multi-book steam
Market breadth: 14/14
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Draw

🐢 Slow drift over 187h 9m

Open 5.32

Low / High 3.77

Current 4.75

Market Narrative

14/14 books synchronized on Draw (15.9% steam, score 89) — high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.

Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Weak
Validation: Warning
Largest gap: Celtic -18.3 pp
Breadth: 14/14
Current market activity: Draw odds lengthened ↑ +15.9%.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Celtic than the current fair estimate.

However, Draw has seen drift — odds lengthened by 15.9%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Draw — odds lengthened by 15.9% (weakening support).

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Aberdeen	27.36%	14.23%	+13.1 pp
Draw	24.84%	19.68%	+5.2 pp
Celtic	47.8%	66.08%	-18.3 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (Celtic vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 47.9% Celtic; Market consensus (3-way) 66.1%; Consensus-line EV -18.6%

No standard primary for this match: the best +EV line in the 25–40% model band is not shown as a main pick (settings). Use the alternative or secondary lines below.

No Primary pick for default sizing on this strip (1X2 can still read “no bet”), but at least one other market clears the +EV threshold — check the Over/Under and BTTS cards below.

⭐ 1X2 Lean

Celtic · Model probability 47.9%

Market consensus (3-way) 66.1%

Consensus-line EV: -18.6%

Best available bookmaker line: +6.2% EV

Some outlier bookmaker prices may still show small theoretical value vs. the consensus line above.

Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 64.3% · Under 2.5 35.7%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 65.5% · No 34.4%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 9.8%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Selective value — At least one tracked market may clear +EV at best odds, but conviction is limited (4.0/10) — size down.

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Draw market context before kickoff

🔥 Strong steam on Draw

Odds move: 4.10 → 4.75 (↑ +15.9%)
Market breadth: 14/14
Steam score: 89 (A+)
Current status: 1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Model validation warning

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 1.4
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

When there is no Primary line, compare the +EV rows in the market cards below (not only 1X2).
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	21	7	5	70
2	Rangers	33	19	12	2	69
3	Celtic	33	21	4	8	67
4	Motherwell	33	14	12	7	54
5	Hibernian	33	13	12	8	51
6	Falkirk	33	13	7	13	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	9	13	11	40
8	Aberdeen	33	9	6	18	33
9	Dundee	33	8	9	16	33
10	ST Mirren	33	7	9	17	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	6	10	17	28
12	Livingston	33	1	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rangers	33	66	31	+35	69
2	Celtic	33	59	35	+24	67
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	58	28	+30	70
4	Motherwell	33	52	29	+23	54
5	Hibernian	33	51	37	+14	51
6	Falkirk	33	45	48	-3	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	45	54	-9	40
8	Kilmarnock	33	37	65	-28	28
9	Livingston	33	35	66	-31	16
10	Dundee	33	34	53	-19	33
11	Aberdeen	33	33	48	-15	33
12	ST Mirren	33	27	48	-21	30

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	33	53.2	26.7	+26.5	67
2	Rangers	33	53.1	30.6	+22.5	69
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	43.5	29.4	+14.1	70
4	Motherwell	33	42.9	30.6	+12.3	54
5	Hibernian	33	42.4	35.3	+7.1	51
6	Falkirk	33	38.5	38.7	-0.2	46
7	ST Mirren	33	30.2	35.4	-5.2	30
8	Dundee Utd	33	36.0	45.4	-9.4	40
9	Aberdeen	33	35.0	47.8	-12.8	33
10	Dundee	33	30.9	44.9	-14.0	33
11	Kilmarnock	33	33.7	52.8	-19.1	28
12	Livingston	33	28.8	50.8	-22.0	16