Dundee Utd vs ST Mirren Strong steam move across 9/14 sportsbooks on Draw

Dundee Utd

Jan 24, 2026 - 15:00

1.45

1.47

36% 28% 37%

ST Mirren

Forecast Assessment

Reliable forecast

Favourite: ST Mirren Balanced match
Model probability: 36.6%
Market probability: 33.2%
Market agreement: Strong
Validation: Pass

Summary:

The model and market both lean ST Mirren, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Dundee Utd remain plausible — this is a relatively open match.

Market Move Intelligence

Current move: Draw ↑ +6.7% 3.0 → 3.2
Move type: ⚡ Sharp-led move
Steam Score: 45B
Moderate sharp signal
Market breadth: 9/14
Phase: Sharp repricing
Ref book: Bet365
CLV validation: Waiting for Close

Largest move today

Odds path — Draw

🐢 Slow drift over 183h 19m

Open 3.35

Low / High 2.90

Current 3.20

Market Narrative

Bet365 led repricing on Draw (6.7%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through.

A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation.

Market Audit

Market agreement: Strong
Validation: Pass
Largest gap: ST Mirren +3.4 pp
Breadth: 9/14
Current market activity: Draw odds lengthened ↑ +6.7%.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

However, Draw has seen drift — odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.

Drift away from Draw — odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Outcome	Fair	Market	Edge
Dundee Utd	35.72%	37.63%	-1.9 pp
Draw	27.67%	29.16%	-1.5 pp
ST Mirren	36.61%	33.21%	+3.4 pp

Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.

Final betting verdict

No default bet at standard thresholds — use leans for context only.

No value on 1X2 (ST Mirren vs. current odds)
Model lean (not a default bet): Over 2.5
Model lean (not a default bet): BTTS Yes
Significant line move — see market context below.

Low conviction (4/10) — prefer smaller stakes or skip.

1X2 ❌ No bet on 1X2 — no value vs. current odds on this market

Match: 36.6% ST Mirren; Market consensus (3-way) 33.2%; Consensus-line EV -2.6%

No positive EV on tracked lines at current best odds.

⭐ Over / Under 2.5 Lean

Over 2.5 55.9% · Under 2.5 44.1%

Value lean: Over 2.5

Both Teams To Score Lean

Yes 60.4% · No 39.6%

Value lean: BTTS Yes

1X2 Poor value

ST Mirren · Model probability 36.6%

Market consensus (3-way) 33.2%

Consensus-line EV: -2.6%

Correct Score Insights Longshot / fun

Most Likely

1-1

Probability 11.5%

Correct score is high-variance — small stakes for fun only.

Betting decision (model vs. market EV)

Lean only (below +EV threshold) — The model leans a side in at least one market, but no tracked line reaches the engine’s minimum EV threshold for a default stake suggestion.

Decision strength: 4.0 / 10

Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (−1.0)

O/U 2.5: insufficient book odds for EV
BTTS: insufficient book odds for EV

Should you bet on this match? No default bet: the model does not show +EV at the configured threshold on available lines.

Draw market context before kickoff

⚡ Sharp-led move on Draw

Odds move: 3.00 → 3.20 (↑ +6.7%)
Market breadth: 9/14
Steam score: 45 (B)
Current status: Market repriced — no remaining value detected on tracked lines at consensus.

Steam detected. Current price appears fully adjusted.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Decision Lifecycle

Current stage: Market monitoring

Forecast Generated
Market Compared
Validation Passed
Closing Recorded
CLV Evaluated

Entry: 2.81
Closing: Pending
CLV: Pending

OddsGPT Decision Engine v2.2.0 Continuously refined using model performance, market data and historical results.

Check Odds at 1xBet

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heart Of Midlothian	33	21	7	5	70
2	Rangers	33	19	12	2	69
3	Celtic	33	21	4	8	67
4	Motherwell	33	14	12	7	54
5	Hibernian	33	13	12	8	51
6	Falkirk	33	13	7	13	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	9	13	11	40
8	Aberdeen	33	9	6	18	33
9	Dundee	33	8	9	16	33
10	ST Mirren	33	7	9	17	30
11	Kilmarnock	33	6	10	17	28
12	Livingston	33	1	13	19	16

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rangers	33	66	31	+35	69
2	Celtic	33	59	35	+24	67
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	58	28	+30	70
4	Motherwell	33	52	29	+23	54
5	Hibernian	33	51	37	+14	51
6	Falkirk	33	45	48	-3	46
7	Dundee Utd	33	45	54	-9	40
8	Kilmarnock	33	37	65	-28	28
9	Livingston	33	35	66	-31	16
10	Dundee	33	34	53	-19	33
11	Aberdeen	33	33	48	-15	33
12	ST Mirren	33	27	48	-21	30

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	33	53.2	26.7	+26.5	67
2	Rangers	33	53.1	30.6	+22.5	69
3	Heart Of Midlothian	33	43.5	29.4	+14.1	70
4	Motherwell	33	42.9	30.6	+12.3	54
5	Hibernian	33	42.4	35.3	+7.1	51
6	Falkirk	33	38.5	38.7	-0.2	46
7	ST Mirren	33	30.2	35.4	-5.2	30
8	Dundee Utd	33	36.0	45.4	-9.4	40
9	Aberdeen	33	35.0	47.8	-12.8	33
10	Dundee	33	30.9	44.9	-14.0	33
11	Kilmarnock	33	33.7	52.8	-19.1	28
12	Livingston	33	28.8	50.8	-22.0	16