Predictions / Football / Poland. Ekstraklasa / Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk

Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
May 04, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.39
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 59%
Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Next AI Predictions Available Today

View Today's Football Predictions See Upcoming Ekstraklasa Matches Track Radomiak Radom Next Match Prediction Track Lechia Gdansk Next Match Prediction

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ekstraklasa
  • Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdansk
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-04 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.2% · Draw 28.9% · Away 33.9%
  • xG (showing): Radomiak Radom 1.39 — Lechia Gdansk 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.71)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 49.1% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +6.1 pts · Est. EV: +12.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.6% · No 43.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraklasa Ekstraklasa — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lech Poznan 33 16 11 6 59
2 Gornik Zabrze 33 15 8 10 53
3 Jagiellonia 33 14 11 8 53
4 Raków Częstochowa 33 15 7 11 52
5 GKS Katowice 33 14 7 12 49
6 Zaglebie Lubin 33 13 9 11 48
7 Legia Warszawa 33 11 13 9 46
8 Wisla Plock 33 12 9 12 45
9 Radomiak Radom 33 11 11 11 44
10 Pogon Szczecin 33 13 5 15 44
11 Motor Lublin 33 10 13 10 43
12 Korona Kielce 33 11 9 13 42
13 Piast Gliwice 33 11 8 14 41
14 Cracovia Krakow 33 9 14 10 41
15 Widzew Łódź 33 11 6 16 39
16 Lechia Gdansk 33 12 7 14 38
17 Arka Gdynia 33 9 9 15 36
18 Nieciecza 33 8 7 18 31
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 33 60 43 +17 59
2 Lechia Gdansk 33 60 62 -2 38
3 Jagiellonia 33 55 41 +14 53
4 GKS Katowice 33 50 44 +6 49
5 Radomiak Radom 33 50 47 +3 44
6 Raków Częstochowa 33 48 40 +8 52
7 Pogon Szczecin 33 46 48 -2 44
8 Motor Lublin 33 46 49 -3 43
9 Zaglebie Lubin 33 45 37 +8 48
10 Gornik Zabrze 33 44 36 +8 53
11 Piast Gliwice 33 41 44 -3 41
12 Nieciecza 33 40 63 -23 31
13 Korona Kielce 33 39 39 0 42
14 Widzew Łódź 33 39 40 -1 39
15 Legia Warszawa 33 38 37 +1 46
16 Cracovia Krakow 33 38 41 -3 41
17 Arka Gdynia 33 34 58 -24 36
18 Wisla Plock 33 32 36 -4 45
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lech Poznan 33 59.8 34.6 +25.2 59
2 Legia Warszawa 33 44.3 34.9 +9.4 46
3 Raków Częstochowa 33 52.1 43.1 +9.0 52
4 Piast Gliwice 33 45.4 40.2 +5.2 41
5 Lechia Gdansk 33 48.3 43.9 +4.4 38
6 Pogon Szczecin 33 52.4 48.2 +4.2 44
7 Gornik Zabrze 33 41.5 39.4 +2.1 53
8 Cracovia Krakow 33 38.1 36.2 +1.9 41
9 Widzew Łódź 33 38.2 37.2 +1.0 39
10 Korona Kielce 33 49.6 49.8 -0.2 42
11 Radomiak Radom 33 42.0 43.8 -1.8 44
12 Wisla Plock 33 41.6 44.2 -2.6 45
13 GKS Katowice 33 41.1 45.5 -4.4 49
14 Jagiellonia 33 42.4 48.3 -5.9 53
15 Zaglebie Lubin 33 33.5 42.8 -9.3 48
16 Nieciecza 33 42.4 54.9 -12.5 31
17 Motor Lublin 33 39.5 52.2 -12.7 43
18 Arka Gdynia 33 36.0 49.1 -13.1 36
Ekstraklasa Poland. Ekstraklasa Predictions
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