統計 / 足球 / 西班牙. Copa Federacion / 門薩赫羅 vs 皇家穆爾西亞

門薩赫羅 vs 皇家穆爾西亞 Statistics & Analysis

門薩赫羅 門薩赫羅
Sep 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 73%
皇家穆爾西亞 皇家穆爾西亞
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追蹤市場與全場比賽結果

每行比較賽前模型傾向與全場比賽結果。

  • 市場 預測 結果 結果
  • 大小球2.5 小於2.5球 大於2.5球 (3 進球) ✖ 錯誤
  • 雙方進球 雙方進球 (BTTS) 是 是 ✔ 正確
  • 1X2 門薩赫羅 皇家穆爾西亞 ✖ 錯誤
  • 波膽洞察 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ 正確

验证报告

Immutable Snapshot

预测时间: Sep 03, 2026 · 13:44 UTC 快照 ID: dp-6786432

收盘赔率 待定
AI 公平赔率 —
CLV 待定
最终赛果 皇家穆爾西亞 win · 門薩赫羅 1–2 皇家穆爾西亞
预测结果 ✖ Missed
决策评级 F

模型绩效

本场预测计入：

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI 比賽簡報

AI 比賽摘要

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa Federacion
  • Fixture: 門薩赫羅 vs 皇家穆爾西亞
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): 門薩赫羅 1.37 — 皇家穆爾西亞 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

歷史推薦

歷史決策: No Primary Bet

結果: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

開賽前考慮的風險因素

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

最後更新

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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