Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema Statistics & Analysis

Ethiopia Bunna

Oct 11, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 64%

Sheger Ketema

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Ethiopia Bunna Sheger Ketema ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13201321

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Sheger Ketema win · Ethiopia Bunna 0–1 Sheger Ketema

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Ethiopia Bunna vs Sheger Ketema
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Ethiopia Bunna 1.34 — Sheger Ketema 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 33.4% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +38.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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