Statistics / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Benjamín Aceval vs Atlético Tembetary

Benjamín Aceval vs Atlético Tembetary Statistics & Analysis

Benjamín Aceval Benjamín Aceval
Sep 21, 2026 - 19:30
2 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 73%
Atlético Tembetary Atlético Tembetary
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atlético Tembetary Benjamín Aceval ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8840695

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Benjamín Aceval win · Benjamín Aceval 2–1 Atlético Tembetary
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Atlético Tembetary (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atlético Tembetary (1X2) by about 9.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Benjamín Aceval (1X2) 31.5 44.6 -13.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 26.3 +3.3
Atlético Tembetary (1X2) 39.0 29.1 +9.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 50.4 -2.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 49.6 +2.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.0% on Atlético Tembetary (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 29.1%. The difference — about 9.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Benjamín Aceval (1X2) 1.99 1.99 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.38 3.38 0.0
Atlético Tembetary (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.84 1.84 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.87 1.87 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Benjamín Aceval vs Atlético Tembetary
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-21 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Benjamín Aceval 1.22 — Atlético Tembetary 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 General Caballero 25 15 5 5 50
2 Deportivo Santani 25 15 3 7 48
3 12 de Junio VH 25 14 6 5 48
4 Benjamín Aceval 25 12 6 7 42
5 SOL DE America 25 8 13 4 37
6 Independiente F.b.c. 25 9 10 6 37
7 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
8 Sportivo Carapeguá 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 25 8 8 9 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 25 6 9 10 27
13 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
14 3 de Noviembre 25 5 8 12 23
15 Encarnación 25 6 4 15 22
16 Tacuary 25 3 12 10 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 25 51 30 +21 50
2 Deportivo Santani 25 43 24 +19 48
3 Benjamín Aceval 25 39 30 +9 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 25 37 32 +5 37
5 12 de Junio VH 25 35 26 +9 48
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 SOL DE America 25 30 24 +6 37
9 Deportivo Capiata 25 30 36 -6 27
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 25 30 38 -8 35
11 3 de Noviembre 25 30 38 -8 23
12 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
13 Resistencia 25 27 30 -3 32
14 Tacuary 25 26 39 -13 21
15 Encarnación 25 25 34 -9 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions