Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Atlético Tembetary vs Paraguari AC

Prediction Audit: Atlético Tembetary vs Paraguari AC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlético Tembetary Atlético Tembetary
Sep 28, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 81%
⚽
Paraguari AC

AI correctly predicted the Atlético Tembetary win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlético Tembetary Atlético Tembetary ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Atlético Tembetary considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Atlético Tembetary +8.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Atlético Tembetary 40.9% 32.8% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 32.8% -3.4 pp Aligned
Paraguari AC 29.7% 34.4% -4.7 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Atlético Tembetary's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.8%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Atlético Tembetary win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atlético Tembetary.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Atlético Tembetary more conservatively (32.8% vs model 40.9%, 8.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Atlético Tembetary win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 28, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Paraguari AC 29.6%
    • xG · Atlético Tembetary 1.42 — Paraguari AC 1.18
  2. Sep 28, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Tembetary 2.71 · Draw 2.71 · Paraguari AC 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 32.8% · Draw 32.8% · Paraguari AC 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 28, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Atlético Tembetary 2.71 · Draw 2.71 · Paraguari AC 2.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Atlético Tembetary 32.8% · Draw 32.8% · Paraguari AC 34.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 28, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Atlético Tembetary win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10251502

Closing Odds 2.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Tembetary win · Atlético Tembetary 2–1 Paraguari AC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Atlético Tembetary vs Paraguari AC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-28 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Tembetary 1.42 — Paraguari AC 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 26 16 3 7 51
2 General Caballero 26 15 5 6 50
3 12 de Junio VH 26 14 7 5 49
4 Benjamín Aceval 26 12 6 8 42
5 SOL DE America 26 9 13 4 40
6 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 11 5 10 38
7 Independiente F.b.c. 26 9 10 7 37
8 Paraguari AC 25 10 5 10 35
9 Resistencia 26 8 8 10 32
10 Fernando De La Mora 25 8 7 10 31
11 Atlético Tembetary 25 8 6 11 30
12 Deportivo Capiata 26 6 10 10 28
13 3 de Noviembre 26 6 8 12 26
14 Guairena FC 25 6 7 12 25
15 Tacuary 26 4 12 10 24
16 Encarnación 26 6 4 16 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 26 52 33 +19 50
2 Deportivo Santani 26 45 25 +20 51
3 Benjamín Aceval 26 40 32 +8 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 26 37 33 +4 37
5 12 de Junio VH 26 35 26 +9 49
6 Paraguari AC 25 34 33 +1 35
7 Atlético Tembetary 25 34 39 -5 30
8 3 de Noviembre 26 33 39 -6 26
9 SOL DE America 26 32 24 +8 40
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 26 31 38 -7 38
11 Deportivo Capiata 26 30 36 -6 28
12 Resistencia 26 28 32 -4 32
13 Fernando De La Mora 25 28 35 -7 31
14 Tacuary 26 28 40 -12 24
15 Encarnación 26 25 36 -11 22
16 Guairena FC 25 22 33 -11 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions