Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting Statistics & Analysis

Cerro Largo

Sep 09, 2026 - 22:45

1 1.16

1 1.44

xG Accuracy: 85%

Defensor Sporting

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Defensor Sporting Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6852031

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Cerro Largo 1–1 Defensor Sporting

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Copa Uruguay
Fixture: Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting
Kickoff: 2026-09-10 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Cerro Largo 1.16 — Defensor Sporting 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.0% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +10.9 pts · Est. EV: +28.5%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

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