The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Penarol at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Penarol Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 29.7% | 33.2% | -3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 32.2% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Penarol | 40.9% | 34.6% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Penarol's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Penarol.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Penarol; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Penarol by 6.3 percentage points (34.6% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Danubio 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Penarol 41.0%
- xG · Danubio 1.18 — Penarol 1.42
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Danubio 2.74 · Draw 2.83 · Penarol 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Danubio 33.2% · Draw 32.2% · Penarol 34.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Danubio 2.74 · Draw 2.83 · Penarol 2.63
- Implied 1X2 · Danubio 33.2% · Draw 32.2% · Penarol 34.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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