Statistics / Football / Dominican-Republic. Liga Mayor / Delfines Del Este vs Universidad O&M

Delfines Del Este vs Universidad O&M Statistics & Analysis

Delfines Del Este Delfines Del Este
Sep 05, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.39
1 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Universidad O&M Universidad O&M
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Delfines Del Este Universidad O&M ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6169991

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Universidad O&M win · Delfines Del Este 0–1 Universidad O&M
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Universidad O&M (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Universidad O&M (1X2) by about 8.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Delfines Del Este (1X2) 39.5 49.6 -10.1
Draw (1X2) 29.5 27.4 +2.1
Universidad O&M (1X2) 31.0 23.1 +8.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 46.5 +1.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 53.5 -1.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Universidad O&M (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.1%. The difference — about 8.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Delfines Del Este (1X2) 1.79 1.79 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.24 3.24 0.0
Universidad O&M (1X2) 3.85 3.85 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.98 1.98 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.72 1.72 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Mayor
  • Fixture: Delfines Del Este vs Universidad O&M
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Delfines Del Este 1.39 — Universidad O&M 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga Mayor Liga Mayor — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Salcedo 4 3 1 0 10
2 Cibao 4 3 0 1 9
3 Universidad O&M 5 2 1 2 7
4 Delfines Del Este 4 2 1 1 7
5 Moca 4 1 3 0 6
6 Vega Real 4 1 1 2 4
7 Jarabacoa 5 1 0 4 3
8 Atlántico 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Salcedo 4 12 3 +9 10
2 Cibao 4 8 3 +5 9
3 Universidad O&M 5 7 5 +2 7
4 Vega Real 4 4 6 -2 4
5 Delfines Del Este 4 2 1 +1 7
6 Jarabacoa 5 2 8 -6 3
7 Atlántico 4 2 12 -10 1
8 Moca 4 1 0 +1 6
Liga Mayor Dominican-Republic. Liga Mayor Predictions