The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Cibao at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Cibao Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Cibao; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Cibao 1.46 — Universidad O&M 1.14
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Cibao 1–1 Universidad O&M
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Mayor — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 2 | Cibao | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Delfines Del Este | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Vega Real | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Moca | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 7 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 17 |
| 2 | Cibao | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Universidad O&M | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Delfines Del Este | 7 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Moca | 8 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Atlántico | 8 | 6 | 26 | -20 | |
| 8 | Jarabacoa | 8 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 0 |
