Novin Ahvaz vs Shahin Bandar Ameri Statistics & Analysis

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Novin Ahvaz

Sep 27, 2026 - 15:30

2 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 68%

Shahin Bandar Ameri

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Novin Ahvaz Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10104321

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Novin Ahvaz 2–2 Shahin Bandar Ameri

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Azadegan League
Fixture: Novin Ahvaz vs Shahin Bandar Ameri
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Novin Ahvaz 1.32 — Shahin Bandar Ameri 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Azadegan League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Saipa	2	2	0	0	6
2	Fard Alborz	3	1	2	0	5
3	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	1	1	0	4
4	Naft Bandar Abbas	2	1	1	0	4
5	Naft Masjed Soleyman	2	1	0	1	3
6	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	0	3	0	3
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	0	3	0	3
8	Niroye Zamini	2	1	0	1	3
9	Ario Eslamshahr	2	1	0	1	3
10	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	2	0	2
11	Pars Jonoubi JAM	2	0	2	0	2
12	Novin Ahvaz	3	0	2	1	2
13	Mes Kerman	2	0	1	1	1
14	Naft Gachsaran	2	0	1	1	1
15	Mes Soongoun	2	0	1	1	1
16	Havadar	2	0	1	1	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Novin Ahvaz	3	4	5	-1	2
2	Saipa	2	3	0	+3	6
3	Be'sat Kermanshah	2	3	0	+3	4
4	Naft Masjed Soleyman	2	3	1	+2	3
5	Shahin Bandar Ameri	3	3	3	0	3
6	Fard Alborz	3	2	1	+1	5
7	Naft Bandar Abbas	2	2	1	+1	4
8	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	3	2	2	0	3
9	Niroye Zamini	2	1	1	0	3
10	Mes Kerman	2	1	2	-1	1
11	Ario Eslamshahr	2	1	3	-2	3
12	Mes Rafsanjan	2	0	0	0	2
13	Pars Jonoubi JAM	2	0	0	0	2
14	Naft Gachsaran	2	0	1	-1	1
15	Mes Soongoun	2	0	2	-2	1
16	Havadar	2	0	3	-3	1