Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / Atletico-MG vs Santos

Atletico-MG vs Santos Statistics & Analysis

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Sep 16, 2026 - 22:00
4(3) 1.22
2(1) 1.51
xG Accuracy: 41%
Santos Santos
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Santos Atletico-MG ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7955850

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds 1.96
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atletico-MG win · Atletico-MG 4–2 Santos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 51.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Santos (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Santos (1X2) by about 23.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Atletico-MG (1X2) 29.1 55.1 -26.0
Draw (1X2) 28.5 26.3 +2.2
Santos (1X2) 42.4 18.6 +23.8
Over 2.5 goals 51.4 45.5 +5.9
Under 2.5 goals 48.6 54.5 -5.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 42.4% on Santos (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.6%. The difference — about 23.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Atletico-MG (1X2) 1.74 1.74 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.65 3.65 0.0
Santos (1X2) 5.16 5.16 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.11 2.11 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.76 1.76 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • Fixture: Atletico-MG vs Santos
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.1% · Draw 28.5% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Atletico-MG 1.22 — Santos 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.4% · Implied: 44.5% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +15.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2