Atletico-MG Predictions & Analysis

Brazil Founded: 1908 ATL

Home Fortress Underperforming Attack

AI Betting Profile

Atletico-MG's recent results have underperformed their underlying chance creation. The team averages 1.42 xG but scores only 1.1 goals per game, suggesting inefficient finishing in recent fixtures (0.32 goals below expected per match). Home form has been stronger (60% home win rate vs 0% away), scoring 1.4 goals per game at home. Across the last 10 matches, a 30% win rate underscores the gap between results and chance creation.

Performance Insights

Finishing Gap — 1.42 xG vs 1.1 goals/game (-0.32 below expected)
Home Strength — 60% home win rate, scoring 1.4 goals/game at home
Balanced Totals — 40% Over / 60% Under in last 10, no clear edge
Balanced BTTS — 40% both teams scored in last 10 matches

Explore Atletico-MG's predicted performance, expert insights, and statistical breakdowns for their upcoming matches in the season.

Current Form

D L L L L

Win Rate

30%

Record (Last 10)

3W 2D 5L

Upcoming Predictions (1)

Upcoming Atletico-MG Matches

Brazil. Serie A (1)

21:30

Mirassol

46% 26% 28% PREDICTION

Atletico-MG

1.72 : 1.31

xG:

1.72 : 1.31

Recent Results & Statistics for Atletico-MG (10)

Date

League

Match

Outcome

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Atletico-MG Stats & Trends

All figures below are based on the last 10 completed matches.

Performance Stats

Goals Scored 11

Goals Conceded 13

Avg. Goals Scored 1.1

Avg. Goals Conceded 1.3

Form Analysis

Matches Played 10

Wins 3

Draws 2

Losses 5

Win Rate 30%

Home (5) 3W 1D 1L

Away (5) 0W 1D 4L

Match Trends

Over 2.5 Rate 40%

Under 2.5 Rate 60%

BTTS Rate 40%

Avg. Total Goals 2.4

AI Prediction Record

Forecast Reliability Moderate Model correctly called 5/10 outcomes (1X2) in recent matches. Mixed record — cross-check with performance insights above.

1X2 Prediction Accuracy 50% (5/10)

Over 2.5 Prediction Accuracy 30%

BTTS Prediction Accuracy 30%

Correct Score Prediction Accuracy 40%

AI Model Insight

Prediction Accuracy Explained

Our AI model correctly predicted 5 out of 10 recent Atletico-MG matches, achieving a 50% accuracy rate. Interestingly, the model achieves higher accuracy on away games (60%) than home matches (40%). This moderate accuracy reflects the inherent unpredictability of match outcomes.

Overall Accuracy 50%

Home Accuracy 40%

Away Accuracy 60%

Attacking Trends

Atletico-MG average 1.1 goals per game across the last 10 matches. They generate 16.2 shots per game with 5.5 on target (34.0% shot accuracy). Their average xG of 1.42 exceeds their actual 1.1 goals, suggesting some wasteful finishing. With 56% average possession, Atletico-MG employ a possession-dominant playing style.

Goals/Game 1.1

Avg. Shots 16.2

Shot Accuracy 34.0%

Avg. xG 1.42

Possession 56%

Home vs Away Performance

Atletico-MG show a strong home advantage In their last 5 home and 5 away matches, they have a 60% home win rate (3W) vs 0% away (0W). At home, they score 1.4 goals/game and concede 0.6, while away they score 0.8 and concede 2.0. Their defense is notably more solid at home.

Home Win Rate 60%

Away Win Rate 0%

Home Goals/Game 1.4

Away Goals/Game 0.8

Goal Distribution

Atletico-MG's goals are predominantly scored in the second half, with 34% coming before half-time and 66% after. Their most dangerous period is the 76-90 minute window, accounting for 39% of goals. Notably, 39% of their goals come in the final 15 minutes (76-90'), making them a genuine late-game threat.

0-15'

15%

16-30'

15%

31-45'

46-60'

20%

61-75'

39%

76-90'

1st Half Goals 34%

2nd Half Goals 66%

Peak Period 76-90 min (39%)

Over/Under 2.5 Analysis

In Atletico-MG's last 10 matches, 4 games (40%) finished with Over 2.5 goals while 6 (60%) were Under 2.5. The average total goals per match is 2.4 (scored 1.1 + conceded 1.3). The trend clearly favors Under 2.5, indicating typically low-scoring affairs. Both Teams To Score (BTTS) occurred in 40% of matches.

Over 2.5 40%

Under 2.5 60%

Avg. Total Goals 2.4

BTTS Rate 40%