Hapoel Herzliya vs Tzeirey Tira Statistics & Analysis

Hapoel Herzliya

Sep 23, 2026 - 17:15

1 1.19

0 1.41

xG Accuracy: 64%

Tzeirey Tira

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tzeirey Tira Hapoel Herzliya ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 17, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9162623

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Hapoel Herzliya win · Hapoel Herzliya 1–0 Tzeirey Tira

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.59 percentage points on Tzeirey Tira (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tzeirey Tira (1X2) by about 20.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Hapoel Herzliya (1X2)	30.1	51.0	-20.9
Draw (1X2)	29.4	29.4	-0.0
Tzeirey Tira (1X2)	40.5	19.6	+20.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.5	+2.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.5	-2.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 40.5% on Tzeirey Tira (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 19.6%. The difference — about 20.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Hapoel Herzliya (1X2)	1.84	1.76	+2.7
Draw (1X2)	3.11	3.05	+0.9
Tzeirey Tira (1X2)	3.83	4.58	-3.6
Over 2.5 goals	2.03	2.04	+0.2
Under 2.5 goals	1.68	1.7	-0.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Hapoel Herzliya vs Tzeirey Tira
Kickoff: 2026-09-23 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
xG (showing): Hapoel Herzliya 1.19 — Tzeirey Tira 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.2% · Implied: 48.9% · Probability edge: +5.3 pts · Est. EV: +5.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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