Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm Statistics & Analysis

Ironi Nesher

Sep 18, 2026 - 08:50

5 1.27

1 1.33

xG Accuracy: 33%

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm Ironi Nesher ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 07:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8734832

Closing Odds 2.1

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Ironi Nesher win · Ironi Nesher 5–1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1X2) by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Ironi Nesher (1X2)	33.8	42.4	-8.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	29.0	+0.7
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1X2)	36.6	28.7	+7.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.4	-2.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.6	+2.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.7%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Ironi Nesher (1X2)	2.1	2.1
Draw (1X2)	3.07	3.07
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1X2)	3.1	3.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.84	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	1.87	1.87

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Ironi Nesher vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 08:50:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Ironi Nesher 1.27 — Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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