Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel Statistics & Analysis

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Sep 09, 2026 - 14:10

1 1.45

0 1.15

xG Accuracy: 64%

Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hapoel Nazareth Illit Hapoel Nazareth Illit ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 13:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6785945

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hapoel Nazareth Illit win · Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
Kickoff: 2026-09-09 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1.45 — Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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