Coventry City U21 vs Barnsley U21 Statistics & Analysis

Coventry City U21

Sep 15, 2026 - 12:00

5 1.29

3 1.31

xG Accuracy: 23%

Barnsley U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Barnsley U21 Coventry City U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7701237

Closing Odds 2.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Coventry City U21 win · Coventry City U21 5–3 Barnsley U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Barnsley U21 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 7.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Coventry City U21 (1X2)	34.7	44.4	-9.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	21.8	+7.8
Barnsley U21 (1X2)	35.6	33.8	+1.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.8%. The difference — about 7.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Coventry City U21 (1X2)	2.06	2.06
Draw (1X2)	4.19	4.19
Barnsley U21 (1X2)	2.71	2.71

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Professional Development League
Fixture: Coventry City U21 vs Barnsley U21
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Coventry City U21 1.29 — Barnsley U21 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.0% · Probability edge: +21.8 pts · Est. EV: +70.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Professional Development League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	5	5	0	0	15
2	Bristol City U21	5	2	3	0	9
3	Swansea City U21	6	3	0	3	9
4	Fleetwood Town U21	5	3	0	2	9
5	Cardiff City U21	5	2	2	1	8
6	Sheffield United U21	5	2	1	2	7
7	Barnsley U21	5	2	1	2	7
8	Peterborough United U21	4	2	1	1	7
9	Sheffield Wednesday U21	5	1	3	1	6
10	Huddersfield Town U21	3	2	0	1	6
11	Charlton Athletic U21	5	1	3	1	6
12	Wigan Athletic U21	6	1	3	2	6
13	Colchester United U21	5	2	0	3	6
14	Coventry City U21	4	1	1	2	4
15	Queens Park Rangers U21	6	1	1	4	4
16	Hull City U21	3	0	1	2	1
17	Millwall U21	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	5	17	2	+15	15
2	Wigan Athletic U21	6	15	19	-4	6
3	Cardiff City U21	5	13	5	+8	8
4	Bristol City U21	5	13	8	+5	9
5	Colchester United U21	5	13	18	-5	6
6	Swansea City U21	6	11	9	+2	9
7	Barnsley U21	5	11	13	-2	7
8	Queens Park Rangers U21	6	11	16	-5	4
9	Charlton Athletic U21	5	9	8	+1	6
10	Coventry City U21	4	9	10	-1	4
11	Sheffield Wednesday U21	5	8	6	+2	6
12	Peterborough United U21	4	8	11	-3	7
13	Huddersfield Town U21	3	7	5	+2	6
14	Sheffield United U21	5	7	7	0	7
15	Fleetwood Town U21	5	6	10	-4	9
16	Hull City U21	3	4	9	-5	1
17	Millwall U21	3	2	8	-6	0