The model missed the final outcome (Fleetwood Town U21 win 0–1).
The model had projected Peterborough United U21 at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Peterborough United U21 Fleetwood Town U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough United U21 | 40.9% | 52.6% | -11.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 19.9% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Fleetwood Town U21 | 29.7% | 27.4% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Peterborough United U21's win probability at 52.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Fleetwood Town U21 win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Peterborough United U21 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Peterborough United U21; match finished Fleetwood Town U21
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Peterborough United U21 by 11.7 percentage points (52.6% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Peterborough United U21 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Fleetwood Town U21 29.6%
- xG · Peterborough United U21 1.42 — Fleetwood Town U21 1.18
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Peterborough United U21 1.74 · Draw 4.59 · Fleetwood Town U21 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · Peterborough United U21 52.6% · Draw 19.9% · Fleetwood Town U21 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Peterborough United U21 1.74 · Draw 4.59 · Fleetwood Town U21 3.34
- Implied 1X2 · Peterborough United U21 52.6% · Draw 19.9% · Fleetwood Town U21 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fleetwood Town U21 win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Professional Development League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
