Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 / Peralada vs Tona

Peralada vs Tona Statistics & Analysis

Peralada Peralada
Sep 13, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Tona Tona
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Peralada Tona ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7452232

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tona win · Peralada 0–1 Tona
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Peralada vs Tona
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Peralada 1.37 — Tona 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Montañesa 2 2 0 0 6
2 Pobla Mafumet 3 2 0 1 6
3 Cornellà 3 1 2 0 5
4 L'Hospitalet 3 1 2 0 5
5 Martinenc 3 1 2 0 5
6 Vilanova 3 1 2 0 5
7 Grama 2 1 1 0 4
8 L'Escala 2 1 0 1 3
9 Vilassar Mar 2 1 0 1 3
10 Mollerussa 2 1 0 1 3
11 Tona 3 1 0 2 3
12 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 2 1 0 1 3
13 Peralada 3 0 2 1 2
14 Europa II 3 0 2 1 2
15 San Cristóbal 2 0 1 1 1
16 Atlètic Lleida 2 0 1 1 1
17 Cerdanyola del Vallès 2 0 1 1 1
18 Badalona 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Martinenc 3 6 5 +1 5
2 Pobla Mafumet 3 5 3 +2 6
3 Cornellà 3 5 3 +2 5
4 Montañesa 2 4 0 +4 6
5 L'Hospitalet 3 4 2 +2 5
6 Vilanova 3 4 3 +1 5
7 Grama 2 3 2 +1 4
8 L'Escala 2 3 2 +1 3
9 Europa II 3 3 5 -2 2
10 Vilassar Mar 2 2 2 0 3
11 Peralada 3 2 3 -1 2
12 San Cristóbal 2 2 3 -1 1
13 Tona 3 2 4 -2 3
14 San Juan Atletico de Montcada 2 2 4 -2 3
15 Atlètic Lleida 2 2 4 -2 1
16 Mollerussa 2 1 1 0 3
17 Cerdanyola del Vallès 2 1 3 -2 1
18 Badalona 2 1 3 -2 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions