The model missed the final outcome (Peralada win 3–0).
The model had projected Atlètic Lleida at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atlètic Lleida Peralada ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peralada | 31.0% | 36.1% | -5.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.2% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Atlètic Lleida | 39.5% | 33.7% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Atlètic Lleida's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.7%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Peralada win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atlètic Lleida.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Atlètic Lleida; match finished Peralada
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atlètic Lleida by 5.8 percentage points (33.7% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Peralada 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Atlètic Lleida 39.5%
- xG · Peralada 1.21 — Atlètic Lleida 1.39
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Peralada 2.34 · Draw 2.80 · Atlètic Lleida 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · Peralada 36.1% · Draw 30.2% · Atlètic Lleida 33.7%
- Bookmaker · SBO
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Peralada 2.34 · Draw 2.80 · Atlètic Lleida 2.51
- Implied 1X2 · Peralada 36.1% · Draw 30.2% · Atlètic Lleida 33.7%
- Bookmaker · SBO
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Peralada win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montañesa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Pobla Mafumet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Cornellà | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | L'Hospitalet | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Martinenc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Vilanova | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | San Cristóbal | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Grama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Atlètic Lleida | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Badalona | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | L'Escala | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Mollerussa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Vilassar Mar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Tona | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Peralada | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Europa II | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martinenc | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 2 | Montañesa | 3 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Pobla Mafumet | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | Cornellà | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 5 | San Juan Atletico de Montcada | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | L'Hospitalet | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 7 | Vilanova | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | San Cristóbal | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Grama | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Badalona | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | L'Escala | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Atlètic Lleida | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Europa II | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Tona | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Cerdanyola del Vallès | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Peralada | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Vilassar Mar | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Mollerussa | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
