Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 / San Ignacio vs Derio

San Ignacio vs Derio Statistics & Analysis

San Ignacio San Ignacio
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Derio Derio
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 San Ignacio Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7450370

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · San Ignacio 1–1 Derio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: San Ignacio vs Derio
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): San Ignacio 1.3 — Derio 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 3 2 1 0 7
2 Eibar III 3 1 2 0 5
3 Aretxabaleta 3 1 2 0 5
4 Deportivo Alavés III 3 1 1 1 4
5 Sodupe 2 1 1 0 4
6 Real Sociedad III 3 1 1 1 4
7 Touring 3 1 1 1 4
8 Beasain 3 1 1 1 4
9 Pasaia KE 3 1 1 1 4
10 Lagun Onak 3 1 1 1 4
11 Erandio 3 1 0 2 3
12 Santurtzi 2 1 0 1 3
13 R. Union B 2 1 0 1 3
14 Leioa 2 0 2 0 2
15 Derio 2 0 2 0 2
16 Durango 3 0 2 1 2
17 San Ignacio 3 0 2 1 2
18 Amurrio Club 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aurrerá Vitoria 3 5 3 +2 7
2 Eibar III 3 5 3 +2 5
3 Deportivo Alavés III 3 5 3 +2 4
4 Real Sociedad III 3 4 3 +1 4
5 Pasaia KE 3 4 5 -1 4
6 Durango 3 4 5 -1 2
7 San Ignacio 3 4 5 -1 2
8 Sodupe 2 3 1 +2 4
9 Touring 3 3 2 +1 4
10 Erandio 3 3 4 -1 3
11 Beasain 3 2 2 0 4
12 Leioa 2 2 2 0 2
13 Lagun Onak 3 2 3 -1 4
14 Santurtzi 2 2 3 -1 3
15 Aretxabaleta 3 1 0 +1 5
16 Derio 2 1 1 0 2
17 R. Union B 2 1 2 -1 3
18 Amurrio Club 2 1 5 -4 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions