Statistics / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 / Arenteiro vs Barco

Arenteiro vs Barco Statistics & Analysis

Arenteiro Arenteiro
Sep 06, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 64%
Barco Barco
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arenteiro Barco ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6371706

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barco win · Arenteiro 0–1 Barco
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Arenteiro vs Barco
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Arenteiro 1.33 — Barco 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Boiro 3 3 0 0 9
2 Villalbés 3 2 1 0 7
3 Sarriana 2 2 0 0 6
4 Lalin 2 2 0 0 6
5 Portonovo SD 2 1 1 0 4
6 Silva 3 1 1 1 4
7 Pontevedra II 2 1 0 1 3
8 Celta de Vigo III 2 1 0 1 3
9 Barco 2 1 0 1 3
10 Antela 2 1 0 1 3
11 Alondras 2 1 0 1 3
12 Atlético Arteixo 2 0 2 0 2
13 Somozas 2 0 1 1 1
14 Estradense 2 0 1 1 1
15 Celtiga 3 0 1 2 1
16 Coruña 2 0 0 2 0
17 Arenteiro 2 0 0 2 0
18 Viveiro 2 0 0 2 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Boiro 3 7 2 +5 9
2 Pontevedra II 2 7 4 +3 3
3 Villalbés 3 6 4 +2 7
4 Sarriana 2 5 1 +4 6
5 Alondras 2 4 6 -2 3
6 Coruña 2 4 6 -2 0
7 Lalin 2 3 1 +2 6
8 Celta de Vigo III 2 3 3 0 3
9 Silva 3 3 4 -1 4
10 Celtiga 3 3 6 -3 1
11 Portonovo SD 2 2 1 +1 4
12 Barco 2 2 2 0 3
13 Estradense 2 2 4 -2 1
14 Atlético Arteixo 2 1 1 0 2
15 Antela 2 1 2 -1 3
16 Arenteiro 2 1 3 -2 0
17 Somozas 2 0 1 -1 1
18 Viveiro 2 0 3 -3 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions