The model missed the final outcome (Viveiro win 1–2).
The model had projected Coruña at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Coruña Viveiro ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coruña | 39.0% | 44.8% | -5.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.6% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Viveiro | 31.5% | 27.6% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Coruña's win probability at 44.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Viveiro win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Coruña. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Coruña; match finished Viveiro
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Coruña by 5.9 percentage points (44.9% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Coruña 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Viveiro 31.5%
- xG · Coruña 1.38 — Viveiro 1.22
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Coruña 2.00 · Draw 3.25 · Viveiro 3.25
- Implied 1X2 · Coruña 44.8% · Draw 27.6% · Viveiro 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Coruña 2.00 · Draw 3.25 · Viveiro 3.25
- Implied 1X2 · Coruña 44.8% · Draw 27.6% · Viveiro 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Viveiro win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Alondras | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Villalbés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Antela | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Barco | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Lalin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pontevedra II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Estradense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Portonovo SD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Silva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Arenteiro | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Somozas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Celtiga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Coruña | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alondras | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Pontevedra II | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Boiro | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Villalbés | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Estradense | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Celta de Vigo III | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Coruña | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Barco | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlético Arteixo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Lalin | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Portonovo SD | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Silva | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Celtiga | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Antela | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Arenteiro | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Somozas | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Viveiro | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
