Statistics / Football / World. CONMEBOL Sudamericana / RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG

RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG Statistics & Analysis

RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
Aug 12, 2026 - 22:00
0 1.23
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 66%
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 06, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3095912

Closing Odds 3.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Atletico-MG win · RB Bragantino 0–1 Atletico-MG
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atletico-MG (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atletico-MG (1X2) by about 11.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
RB Bragantino (1X2) 33.6 44.3 -10.7
Draw (1X2) 30.3 31.2 -0.9
Atletico-MG (1X2) 36.1 24.5 +11.6
Over 2.5 goals 45.9 37.1 +8.8
Under 2.5 goals 54.1 62.9 -8.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Atletico-MG (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.5%. The difference — about 11.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
RB Bragantino (1X2) 2.15 2.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.05 3.05 0.0
Atletico-MG (1X2) 3.89 3.89 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.56 2.56 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: CONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Atletico-MG
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-12 22:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.7% · Draw 30.3% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): RB Bragantino 1.23 — Atletico-MG 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.51)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 52.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +13.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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CONMEBOL Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Macara 6 2 4 0 10
2 Tigre 6 2 3 1 9
3 America de Cali 6 2 3 1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 0 2 4 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 8 5 +3 9
2 Macara 6 6 3 +3 10
3 America de Cali 6 6 5 +1 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 2 9 -7 2
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Tigre 6 4.1 3.0 +1.1 9
2 Macara 6 1.2 1.6 -0.4 10
3 America de Cali 6 — — — 9
4 Alianza Atletico 6 — — — 2