Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II Statistics & Analysis

Natsional Sofia

Sep 19, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.22

0 1.38

xG Accuracy: 55%

Slavia Sofia II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Slavia Sofia II Natsional Sofia ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8687697

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Natsional Sofia win · Natsional Sofia 2–0 Slavia Sofia II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Third League - Southwest
Fixture: Natsional Sofia vs Slavia Sofia II
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Natsional Sofia 1.22 — Slavia Sofia II 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Third League - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Strumska Slava	7	5	1	1	16
2	Oborishte	7	4	3	0	15
3	Botev Ihtiman	7	5	0	2	15
4	FK Minyor Pernik	7	4	2	1	14
5	Septemvri Sofia II	7	4	1	2	13
6	Bansko	7	4	1	2	13
7	Kostinbrod	7	4	0	3	12
8	Belasitsa	7	3	1	3	10
9	Slavia Sofia II	7	3	0	4	9
10	Septemvri Simitli	7	2	3	2	9
11	Slivnishki geroy	7	3	0	4	9
12	Balkan Botevgrad	7	3	0	4	9
13	CSKA Sofia III	7	1	5	1	8
14	Kyustendil	7	2	2	3	8
15	Levski Sofia II	7	1	2	4	5
16	Chavdar Etropole	7	1	1	5	4
17	Pirin Razlog	7	1	1	5	4
18	Natsional Sofia	7	0	3	4	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Strumska Slava	7	15	6	+9	16
2	Oborishte	7	14	5	+9	15
3	Botev Ihtiman	7	14	9	+5	15
4	Bansko	7	14	12	+2	13
5	Belasitsa	7	14	15	-1	10
6	FK Minyor Pernik	7	13	5	+8	14
7	Septemvri Sofia II	7	11	7	+4	13
8	Kostinbrod	7	10	8	+2	12
9	Septemvri Simitli	7	10	11	-1	9
10	Slivnishki geroy	7	10	13	-3	9
11	Slavia Sofia II	7	9	7	+2	9
12	Natsional Sofia	7	9	16	-7	3
13	Kyustendil	7	8	9	-1	8
14	Chavdar Etropole	7	8	19	-11	4
15	Levski Sofia II	7	7	10	-3	5
16	CSKA Sofia III	7	6	6	0	8
17	Pirin Razlog	7	6	17	-11	4
18	Balkan Botevgrad	7	4	7	-3	9