The model missed the final outcome (Oborishte win 1–3).
The model had projected Septemvri Simitli at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Septemvri Simitli Oborishte ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Septemvri Simitli; match finished Oborishte
Market lesson
The full-time result was Oborishte win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 21, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Septemvri Simitli 1.32 — Oborishte 1.28
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Oborishte win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Oborishte win · Septemvri Simitli 1–3 Oborishte
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Third League - Southwest — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oborishte | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 2 | FK Minyor Pernik | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Strumska Slava | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Bansko | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Botev Ihtiman | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Kostinbrod | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Septemvri Sofia II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Belasitsa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Slivnishki geroy | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Balkan Botevgrad | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia III | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | Kyustendil | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 16 | Pirin Razlog | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Chavdar Etropole | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oborishte | 8 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Strumska Slava | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
| 3 | Bansko | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
| 4 | FK Minyor Pernik | 8 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | Botev Ihtiman | 8 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Belasitsa | 8 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | Slivnishki geroy | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia II | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Kostinbrod | 8 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 15 |
| 10 | Septemvri Simitli | 8 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Natsional Sofia | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Levski Sofia II | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Slavia Sofia II | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Chavdar Etropole | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 4 |
| 15 | Kyustendil | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Pirin Razlog | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | CSKA Sofia III | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 | Balkan Botevgrad | 8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
