Muang Loei United vs Chainat Statistics & Analysis

Muang Loei United

Sep 13, 2026 - 11:00

3 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 45%

Chainat

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Muang Loei United Muang Loei United ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7426335

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Muang Loei United win · Muang Loei United 3–0 Chainat

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Thai League 2
Fixture: Muang Loei United vs Chainat
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 11:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Muang Loei United 1.34 — Chainat 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Thai League 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Police Tero	2	2	0	0	6
2	Khon Kaen United	2	2	0	0	6
3	Muangthong United	2	1	1	0	4
4	Kanchanaburi	1	1	0	0	3
5	Chainat	1	1	0	0	3
6	Nong Bua Pitchaya	2	1	0	1	3
7	Satun	2	1	0	1	3
8	Chiangmai United	2	1	0	1	3
9	Esan Pattaya	2	1	0	1	3
10	Nakhon Pathom	1	0	1	0	1
11	Uttaradit	1	0	1	0	1
12	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	2	0	1	1	1
13	Songkhla	2	0	1	1	1
14	Mahasarakham United	2	0	1	1	1
15	Chanthaburi	1	0	0	1	0
16	Muang Loei United	1	0	0	1	0
17	Phrae United	1	0	0	1	0
18	Kasetsart FC	1	0	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Satun	2	5	5	0	3
2	Police Tero	2	4	0	+4	6
3	Khon Kaen United	2	4	0	+4	6
4	Kanchanaburi	1	4	2	+2	3
5	Chainat	1	3	1	+2	3
6	Nong Bua Pitchaya	2	3	2	+1	3
7	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	2	3	4	-1	1
8	Muangthong United	2	2	1	+1	4
9	Chiangmai United	2	2	2	0	3
10	Nakhon Pathom	1	2	2	0	1
11	Songkhla	2	2	4	-2	1
12	Esan Pattaya	2	1	3	-2	3
13	Phrae United	1	1	3	-2	0
14	Mahasarakham United	2	1	4	-3	1
15	Uttaradit	1	0	0	0	1
16	Chanthaburi	1	0	1	-1	0
17	Muang Loei United	1	0	1	-1	0
18	Kasetsart FC	1	0	2	-2	0