Predictions / Football / Thailand. Thai League 2 / Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun

Prediction Audit: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nong Bua Pitchaya Nong Bua Pitchaya
Sep 19, 2026 - 12:30
4 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 30%
Satun Satun

AI correctly predicted the Nong Bua Pitchaya win.

The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nong Bua Pitchaya Nong Bua Pitchaya ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Nong Bua Pitchaya higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nong Bua Pitchaya -12.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nong Bua Pitchaya 35.6% 48.1% -12.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Satun 34.7% 25.3% +9.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Nong Bua Pitchaya's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Nong Bua Pitchaya win 4–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Nong Bua Pitchaya than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Nong Bua Pitchaya higher (48.1% vs model 35.6%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Nong Bua Pitchaya win 4–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nong Bua Pitchaya 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Satun 34.7%
    • xG · Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.31 — Satun 1.29
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.88 · Draw 3.41 · Satun 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Nong Bua Pitchaya 48.1% · Draw 26.5% · Satun 25.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.88 · Draw 3.41 · Satun 3.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Nong Bua Pitchaya 48.1% · Draw 26.5% · Satun 25.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nong Bua Pitchaya win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 37/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8668674

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nong Bua Pitchaya win · Nong Bua Pitchaya 4–3 Satun
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Thai League 2
  • Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.31 — Satun 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Thai League 2 Thai League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Khon Kaen United 4 3 0 1 9
2 Uttaradit 4 2 2 0 8
3 Muang Loei United 4 2 1 1 7
4 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 2 1 1 7
5 Chainat 4 2 1 1 7
6 Muangthong United 4 2 1 1 7
7 Satun 4 2 0 2 6
8 Kanchanaburi 4 1 3 0 6
9 Chiangmai United 4 2 0 2 6
10 Police Tero 4 2 0 2 6
11 Songkhla 4 1 2 1 5
12 Chanthaburi 4 1 1 2 4
13 Nakhon Pathom 4 0 4 0 4
14 Phrae United 4 1 1 2 4
15 Esan Pattaya 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mahasarakham United 4 0 3 1 3
17 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 0 2 2 2
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Satun 4 11 9 +2 6
2 Nong Bua Pitchaya 4 9 7 +2 7
3 Uttaradit 4 8 5 +3 8
4 Khon Kaen United 4 7 3 +4 9
5 Muang Loei United 4 6 2 +4 7
6 Kanchanaburi 4 6 4 +2 6
7 Songkhla 4 6 5 +1 5
8 Chiangmai United 4 5 4 +1 6
9 Chainat 4 5 5 0 7
10 Chanthaburi 4 5 5 0 4
11 Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4 5 7 -2 2
12 Police Tero 4 4 5 -1 6
13 Phrae United 4 4 5 -1 4
14 Nakhon Pathom 4 3 3 0 4
15 Muangthong United 4 3 4 -1 7
16 Mahasarakham United 4 3 6 -3 3
17 Esan Pattaya 4 1 6 -5 4
18 Kasetsart FC 4 0 6 -6 1