Bath City vs Hanworth Villa Statistics & Analysis

Bath City

Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Hanworth Villa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Bath City Bath City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3355885

Closing Odds 1.98

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bath City win · Bath City 1–0 Hanworth Villa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hanworth Villa (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hanworth Villa (1X2) by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bath City (1X2)	36.1	45.7	-9.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.9	+1.7
Hanworth Villa (1X2)	34.2	26.4	+7.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.7	-3.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.3	+3.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Hanworth Villa (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Bath City (1X2)	1.98	1.98
Draw (1X2)	3.24	3.24
Hanworth Villa (1X2)	3.43	3.43
Over 2.5 goals	1.81	1.81
Under 2.5 goals	1.94	1.94

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Non League Premier - Southern South
Fixture: Bath City vs Hanworth Villa
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Bath City 1.32 — Hanworth Villa 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	6	1	1	19
2	Uxbridge	8	5	2	1	17
3	Hanworth Villa	8	5	1	2	16
4	Chertsey Town	8	4	2	2	14
5	Bath City	8	4	2	2	14
6	Frome Town	8	4	1	3	13
7	Chichester City	8	4	1	3	13
8	Berkhamsted	9	4	1	4	13
9	Taunton Town	8	4	0	4	12
10	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	12
11	Gosport Borough	8	3	2	3	11
12	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	11
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	10
14	Bracknell Town	8	3	1	4	10
15	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	9
16	Basingstoke Town	8	2	3	3	9
17	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7
18	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7
19	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6
20	Gloucester City	8	1	3	4	6
21	Malvern Town	8	1	2	5	5
22	Havant & Wville	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	22	7	+15	19
2	Taunton Town	8	21	20	+1	12
3	Chertsey Town	8	19	12	+7	14
4	Uxbridge	8	17	7	+10	17
5	Hanworth Villa	8	15	7	+8	16
6	Chichester City	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Basingstoke Town	8	13	14	-1	9
8	Frome Town	8	12	8	+4	13
9	Malvern Town	8	12	23	-11	5
10	Bath City	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Gosport Borough	8	11	9	+2	11
12	Berkhamsted	9	11	12	-1	13
13	Evesham United	7	11	14	-3	10
14	Gloucester City	8	11	16	-5	6
15	Yate Town	7	10	11	-1	11
16	Bracknell Town	8	10	17	-7	10
17	Poole Town	7	8	9	-1	12
18	Havant & Wville	8	8	15	-7	4
19	Sholing	7	7	12	-5	7
20	Chippenham Town	7	7	14	-7	7
21	Wimborne Town	7	6	4	+2	9
22	Hanwell Town	7	6	9	-3	6