Prediction Audit: Chertsey Town vs Poole Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chertsey Town

Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45

1 1.25

3 1.35

xG Accuracy: 59%

Poole Town

AI correctly predicted the Poole Town win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Poole Town Poole Town ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Chertsey Town	32.9%	44.6%	-11.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	25.9%	+3.8 pp	Aligned
Poole Town	37.5%	29.6%	+8.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Chertsey Town's win probability at 44.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Poole Town win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Chertsey Town than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Poole Town higher (49.2% vs model 37.5%, 11.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Poole Town win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 29, 2026 · 18:40 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Chertsey Town 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Poole Town 37.6%
- xG · Chertsey Town 1.25 — Poole Town 1.35
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Chertsey Town 2.03 · Draw 3.50 · Poole Town 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Chertsey Town 44.6% · Draw 25.9% · Poole Town 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:40 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Chertsey Town 2.03 · Draw 3.50 · Poole Town 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Chertsey Town 44.6% · Draw 25.9% · Poole Town 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 29, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Poole Town win · 1–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10421903

Closing Odds 2.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Poole Town win · Chertsey Town 1–3 Poole Town

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Non League Premier - Southern South
Fixture: Chertsey Town vs Poole Town
Kickoff: 2026-09-29 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Chertsey Town 1.25 — Poole Town 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.0% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	6	1	1	19
2	Uxbridge	8	5	2	1	17
3	Hanworth Villa	8	5	1	2	16
4	Chertsey Town	8	4	2	2	14
5	Bath City	8	4	2	2	14
6	Frome Town	8	4	1	3	13
7	Chichester City	8	4	1	3	13
8	Berkhamsted	9	4	1	4	13
9	Taunton Town	8	4	0	4	12
10	Poole Town	7	4	0	3	12
11	Gosport Borough	8	3	2	3	11
12	Yate Town	7	3	2	2	11
13	Evesham United	7	3	1	3	10
14	Bracknell Town	8	3	1	4	10
15	Wimborne Town	7	2	3	2	9
16	Basingstoke Town	8	2	3	3	9
17	Sholing	7	2	1	4	7
18	Chippenham Town	7	2	1	4	7
19	Hanwell Town	7	1	3	3	6
20	Gloucester City	8	1	3	4	6
21	Malvern Town	8	1	2	5	5
22	Havant & Wville	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Plymouth Parkway	8	22	7	+15	19
2	Taunton Town	8	21	20	+1	12
3	Chertsey Town	8	19	12	+7	14
4	Uxbridge	8	17	7	+10	17
5	Hanworth Villa	8	15	7	+8	16
6	Chichester City	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Basingstoke Town	8	13	14	-1	9
8	Frome Town	8	12	8	+4	13
9	Malvern Town	8	12	23	-11	5
10	Bath City	8	11	7	+4	14
11	Gosport Borough	8	11	9	+2	11
12	Berkhamsted	9	11	12	-1	13
13	Evesham United	7	11	14	-3	10
14	Gloucester City	8	11	16	-5	6
15	Yate Town	7	10	11	-1	11
16	Bracknell Town	8	10	17	-7	10
17	Poole Town	7	8	9	-1	12
18	Havant & Wville	8	8	15	-7	4
19	Sholing	7	7	12	-5	7
20	Chippenham Town	7	7	14	-7	7
21	Wimborne Town	7	6	4	+2	9
22	Hanwell Town	7	6	9	-3	6