Lewes vs Eastbourne Borough Statistics & Analysis

Lewes

Aug 31, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 64%

Eastbourne Borough

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Eastbourne Borough Lewes ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5400916

Closing Odds 1.91

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Lewes win · Lewes 1–0 Eastbourne Borough

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Lewes (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Lewes (1X2)	32.9	28.0	+4.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.6	+5.0
Eastbourne Borough (1X2)	37.6	47.4	-9.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.6	-9.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.4	+9.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.4%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Lewes (1X2)	3.23	3.23
Draw (1X2)	3.68	3.68
Eastbourne Borough (1X2)	1.91	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	2.2	2.2

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Non League Premier - Isthmian
Fixture: Lewes vs Eastbourne Borough
Kickoff: 2026-08-31 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Lewes 1.25 — Eastbourne Borough 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +8.0 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Lewes & Eastbourne Borough!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

Non League Premier - Isthmian — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Enfield Town	8	6	0	2	18
2	Welling United	8	6	0	2	18
3	Dartford	8	6	0	2	18
4	Carshalton Athletic	9	6	0	3	18
5	Lewes	9	5	1	3	16
6	Leatherhead	9	4	3	2	15
7	St Albans City	8	4	2	2	14
8	Ramsgate	8	4	1	3	13
9	Dulwich Hamlet	7	4	1	2	13
10	Eastbourne Borough	8	4	1	3	13
11	Chatham Town	8	4	0	4	12
12	Wingate & Finchley	8	3	2	3	11
13	Aveley	8	3	1	4	10
14	Burgess Hill Town	7	2	4	1	10
15	Cray Wanderers	7	2	3	2	9
16	Maldon & Tiptree	8	3	0	5	9
17	Cheshunt	9	1	5	3	8
18	Brentwood Town	8	2	0	6	6
19	Whyteleafe	8	1	3	4	6
20	Whitehawk	8	1	2	5	5
21	Three Bridges	9	1	2	6	5
22	Stanway Rovers	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Enfield Town	8	23	11	+12	18
2	Ramsgate	8	19	10	+9	13
3	Welling United	8	18	9	+9	18
4	St Albans City	8	17	13	+4	14
5	Leatherhead	9	17	15	+2	15
6	Dulwich Hamlet	7	16	9	+7	13
7	Chatham Town	8	16	13	+3	12
8	Aveley	8	16	14	+2	10
9	Three Bridges	9	16	28	-12	5
10	Carshalton Athletic	9	15	13	+2	18
11	Lewes	9	14	11	+3	16
12	Eastbourne Borough	8	14	11	+3	13
13	Dartford	8	13	8	+5	18
14	Cray Wanderers	7	13	11	+2	9
15	Brentwood Town	8	13	15	-2	6
16	Wingate & Finchley	8	13	18	-5	11
17	Maldon & Tiptree	8	12	21	-9	9
18	Burgess Hill Town	7	11	9	+2	10
19	Whyteleafe	8	10	17	-7	6
20	Whitehawk	8	9	19	-10	5
21	Cheshunt	9	7	12	-5	8
22	Stanway Rovers	8	6	21	-15	4