Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX U21 / Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21

Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21 Statistics & Analysis

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Toluca U21
Aug 30, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.33
1 1.27
xG Accuracy: 77%
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Juarez U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Toluca U21 Toluca U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5298334

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Toluca U21 win · Toluca U21 2–1 Juarez U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Juarez U21 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Juarez U21 (1X2) by about 11.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Toluca U21 (1X2) 36.6 50.8 -14.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.7 +3.0
Juarez U21 (1X2) 33.8 22.5 +11.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 48.5 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 51.5 +0.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Juarez U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.5%. The difference — about 11.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE10) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Toluca U21 (1X2) 1.77 1.77 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.37 3.37 0.0
Juarez U21 (1X2) 3.99 3.99 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX U21
  • Fixture: Toluca U21 vs Juarez U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Toluca U21 1.33 — Juarez U21 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga MX U21 Liga MX U21 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca U21 9 8 1 0 25
2 Club Leon U21 9 8 0 1 24
3 Club Tijuana U21 10 6 1 3 19
4 Puebla U21 9 5 1 3 16
5 Cruz Azul U21 10 5 1 4 16
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 9 5 0 4 15
7 Club America U21 9 5 0 4 15
8 Monterrey U21 9 4 1 4 13
9 Juarez U21 8 4 1 3 13
10 Atl. San Luis U21 9 4 0 5 12
11 Necaxa U21 9 4 0 5 12
12 Atlante U21 10 4 0 6 12
13 Atlas U21 10 3 1 6 10
14 UNAM Pumas U21 9 3 1 5 10
15 Santos Laguna U21 9 3 1 5 10
16 Pachuca U21 9 3 0 6 9
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 2 1 7 7
18 Queretaro U21 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca U21 9 18 7 +11 25
2 Club Leon U21 9 18 9 +9 24
3 Monterrey U21 9 18 13 +5 13
4 Cruz Azul U21 10 18 15 +3 16
5 Club Tijuana U21 10 17 12 +5 19
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 9 15 14 +1 15
7 Atl. San Luis U21 9 15 18 -3 12
8 Club America U21 9 14 13 +1 15
9 Atlante U21 10 14 20 -6 12
10 Atlas U21 10 13 12 +1 10
11 Puebla U21 9 11 7 +4 16
12 Pachuca U21 9 10 13 -3 9
13 Necaxa U21 9 10 15 -5 12
14 Queretaro U21 9 10 16 -6 6
15 Juarez U21 8 9 9 0 13
16 UNAM Pumas U21 9 9 11 -2 10
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 9 19 -10 7
18 Santos Laguna U21 9 7 12 -5 10
Liga MX U21 Mexico. Liga MX U21 Predictions