AI correctly predicted the Club Leon U21 win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Club Leon U21 Club Leon U21 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Leon U21 | 35.2% | 41.2% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.2% | +0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Juarez U21 | 35.2% | 29.6% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Club Leon U21's win probability at 41.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Club Leon U21 win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Club Leon U21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Club Leon U21 higher (41.2% vs model 35.2%, 6.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Club Leon U21 win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Club Leon U21 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Juarez U21 35.2%
- xG · Club Leon U21 1.30 — Juarez U21 1.30
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Club Leon U21 2.16 · Draw 3.05 · Juarez U21 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Club Leon U21 41.2% · Draw 29.2% · Juarez U21 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Club Leon U21 2.16 · Draw 3.05 · Juarez U21 3.00
- Implied 1X2 · Club Leon U21 41.2% · Draw 29.2% · Juarez U21 29.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Club Leon U21 win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Club Leon U21 & Juarez U21!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Liga MX U21 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Puebla U21 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul U21 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Club America U21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Monterrey U21 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Juarez U21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlas U21 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna U21 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 16 | Pachuca U21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 | Queretaro U21 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca U21 | 9 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 2 | Club Leon U21 | 9 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 | Monterrey U21 | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul U21 | 10 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Club Tijuana U21 | 10 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas U21 | 9 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Atl. San Luis U21 | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Club America U21 | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlante U21 | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 | Atlas U21 | 10 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Puebla U21 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Pachuca U21 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Necaxa U21 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Queretaro U21 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Juarez U21 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | UNAM Pumas U21 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL U21 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna U21 | 9 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 10 |
