Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX U21 / Juarez U21 vs Puebla U21

Juarez U21 vs Puebla U21 Statistics & Analysis

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Juarez U21
Jul 17, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.40
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 55%
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Puebla U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Juarez U21 Puebla U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1459224

Closing Odds 4.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Puebla U21 win · Juarez U21 0–2 Puebla U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Puebla U21 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Juarez U21 (1X2) 46.0 53.8 -7.7
Draw (1X2) 27.8 27.9 -0.1
Puebla U21 (1X2) 26.1 18.4 +7.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 39.0 +9.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 61.0 -9.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 39.0%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Juarez U21 (1X2) 1.65 1.65 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.18 3.18 0.0
Puebla U21 (1X2) 4.83 4.83 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.35 2.35 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga MX U21
  • Fixture: Juarez U21 vs Puebla U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.0% · Draw 27.8% · Away 26.2%
  • xG (showing): Juarez U21 1.4 — Puebla U21 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.3% · Implied: 40.8% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +28.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX U21 Liga MX U21 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Leon U21 9 8 0 1 24
2 Toluca U21 8 7 1 0 22
3 Cruz Azul U21 9 5 1 3 16
4 Club Tijuana U21 9 5 1 3 16
5 Puebla U21 8 5 0 3 15
6 Guadalajara Chivas U21 8 5 0 3 15
7 Club America U21 9 5 0 4 15
8 Monterrey U21 8 4 1 3 13
9 Juarez U21 8 4 1 3 13
10 Atl. San Luis U21 9 4 0 5 12
11 Necaxa U21 9 4 0 5 12
12 Atlas U21 9 3 1 5 10
13 UNAM Pumas U21 9 3 1 5 10
14 Santos Laguna U21 9 3 1 5 10
15 Pachuca U21 9 3 0 6 9
16 Atlante U21 9 3 0 6 9
17 Tigres UANL U21 9 2 0 7 6
18 Queretaro U21 8 1 0 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Club Leon U21 9 18 9 +9 24
2 Cruz Azul U21 9 16 12 +4 16
3 Toluca U21 8 15 5 +10 22
4 Atl. San Luis U21 9 15 18 -3 12
5 Monterrey U21 8 14 8 +6 13
6 Club Tijuana U21 9 14 10 +4 16
7 Club America U21 9 14 13 +1 15
8 Guadalajara Chivas U21 8 13 10 +3 15
9 Atlas U21 9 11 9 +2 10
10 Puebla U21 8 10 6 +4 15
11 Pachuca U21 9 10 13 -3 9
12 Necaxa U21 9 10 15 -5 12
13 Juarez U21 8 9 9 0 13
14 UNAM Pumas U21 9 9 11 -2 10
15 Atlante U21 9 9 16 -7 9
16 Tigres UANL U21 9 8 18 -10 6
17 Santos Laguna U21 9 7 12 -5 10
18 Queretaro U21 8 6 14 -8 3
Liga MX U21 Mexico. Liga MX U21 Predictions