Statistics / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / Victoria Rosport vs US Mondorf-les-bains

Victoria Rosport vs US Mondorf-les-bains Statistics & Analysis

Victoria Rosport Victoria Rosport
Aug 09, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.10
3 1.50
xG Accuracy: 52%
US Mondorf-les-bains US Mondorf-les-bains
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 US Mondorf-les-bains US Mondorf-les-bains ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2964604

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result US Mondorf-les-bains win · Victoria Rosport 2–3 US Mondorf-les-bains
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Victoria Rosport (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Victoria Rosport (1X2) by about 7.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Victoria Rosport (1X2) 26.2 18.9 +7.3
Draw (1X2) 29.0 23.9 +5.1
US Mondorf-les-bains (1X2) 44.8 57.2 -12.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.0 -5.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.0 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.2% on Victoria Rosport (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.9%. The difference — about 7.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Victoria Rosport (1X2) 4.84 4.84 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
US Mondorf-les-bains (1X2) 1.6 1.6 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.74 1.74 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.04 2.04 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: Victoria Rosport vs US Mondorf-les-bains
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.8%
  • xG (showing): Victoria Rosport 1.1 — US Mondorf-les-bains 1.5 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Victoria Rosport & US Mondorf-les-bains!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UNA Strassen 6 6 0 0 18
2 FC Differdange 03 7 6 0 1 18
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 6 6 0 0 18
4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 7 5 1 1 16
5 Progres Niederkorn 7 5 0 2 15
6 UN Kaerjeng 97 7 4 0 3 12
7 US Hostert 7 3 1 3 10
8 Résidence Walferdange 6 3 0 3 9
9 Atert Bissen 6 3 0 3 9
10 F91 Dudelange 7 2 1 4 7
11 AS Jeunesse Esch 7 2 0 5 6
12 US Rumelange 6 2 0 4 6
13 Wiltz 7 1 1 5 4
14 Victoria Rosport 7 1 1 5 4
15 Etzella Ettelbruck 7 1 1 5 4
16 Swift Hesperange 6 0 0 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 7 21 8 +13 16
2 UN Kaerjeng 97 7 19 13 +6 12
3 FC Differdange 03 7 16 5 +11 18
4 US Mondorf-les-bains 6 14 7 +7 18
5 UNA Strassen 6 13 1 +12 18
6 Progres Niederkorn 7 13 5 +8 15
7 US Hostert 7 13 10 +3 10
8 AS Jeunesse Esch 7 13 16 -3 6
9 Wiltz 7 12 18 -6 4
10 Résidence Walferdange 6 11 9 +2 9
11 Victoria Rosport 7 10 19 -9 4
12 Atert Bissen 6 8 9 -1 9
13 US Rumelange 6 8 15 -7 6
14 F91 Dudelange 7 6 11 -5 7
15 Etzella Ettelbruck 7 5 14 -9 4
16 Swift Hesperange 6 2 24 -22
National Division Luxembourg. National Division Predictions