Predictions / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / Résidence Walferdange vs US Mondorf-les-bains

Prediction Audit: Résidence Walferdange vs US Mondorf-les-bains Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Résidence Walferdange Résidence Walferdange
Sep 16, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.17
1 1.43
xG Accuracy: 71%
US Mondorf-les-bains US Mondorf-les-bains

The model missed the final outcome (Résidence Walferdange win 2–1).

The model had projected US Mondorf-les-bains at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 US Mondorf-les-bains Résidence Walferdange ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices US Mondorf-les-bains higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: US Mondorf-les-bains -11.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Résidence Walferdange 29.2% 22.5% +6.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.4% +5.0 pp Aligned
US Mondorf-les-bains 41.4% 53.2% -11.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates US Mondorf-les-bains's win probability at 53.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Résidence Walferdange win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about US Mondorf-les-bains than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on US Mondorf-les-bains by 11.8 percentage points (53.2% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Résidence Walferdange 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · US Mondorf-les-bains 41.4%
    • xG · Résidence Walferdange 1.17 — US Mondorf-les-bains 1.43
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Résidence Walferdange 4.07 · Draw 3.75 · US Mondorf-les-bains 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Résidence Walferdange 22.5% · Draw 24.4% · US Mondorf-les-bains 53.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Résidence Walferdange 4.07 · Draw 3.75 · US Mondorf-les-bains 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Résidence Walferdange 22.5% · Draw 24.4% · US Mondorf-les-bains 53.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Résidence Walferdange win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7927406

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Résidence Walferdange win · Résidence Walferdange 2–1 US Mondorf-les-bains
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: Résidence Walferdange vs US Mondorf-les-bains
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Résidence Walferdange 1.17 — US Mondorf-les-bains 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.6% · Probability edge: +9.2 pts · Est. EV: +16.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UNA Strassen 8 8 0 0 24
2 FC Differdange 03 8 7 0 1 21
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 6 0 2 18
4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 5 2 1 17
5 Progres Niederkorn 8 5 1 2 16
6 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 5 0 3 15
7 Atert Bissen 8 5 0 3 15
8 Résidence Walferdange 8 5 0 3 15
9 US Hostert 8 3 2 3 11
10 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 2 1 5 7
11 F91 Dudelange 8 2 1 5 7
12 US Rumelange 8 2 0 6 6
13 Victoria Rosport 8 1 2 5 5
14 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 1 2 5 5
15 Wiltz 8 1 1 6 4
16 Swift Hesperange 8 0 0 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 23 15 +8 15
2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 21 8 +13 17
3 FC Differdange 03 8 19 5 +14 21
4 Atert Bissen 8 18 11 +7 15
5 UNA Strassen 8 17 2 +15 24
6 Résidence Walferdange 8 16 10 +6 15
7 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 16 11 +5 18
8 US Hostert 8 14 11 +3 11
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 14 17 -3 7
10 Wiltz 8 14 22 -8 4
11 Progres Niederkorn 8 13 5 +8 16
12 Victoria Rosport 8 11 20 -9 5
13 F91 Dudelange 8 8 15 -7 7
14 US Rumelange 8 8 23 -15 6
15 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 6 15 -9 5
16 Swift Hesperange 8 2 30 -28