Liverpool vs Sunderland Statistics & Analysis

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Validation Report

AI match briefing

Model Performance

AI Match Summary

Historical Recommendation

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Last Updated

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Premier League - Summer Series — Standings

Liverpool

Jul 25, 2026 - 22:00

4 2.19

2 1.04

xG Accuracy: 47%

Sunderland

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Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Liverpool Liverpool ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1457077

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Liverpool win · Liverpool 4–2 Sunderland

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League - Summer Series
Fixture: Liverpool vs Sunderland
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 22:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 62.4% · Draw 21.9% · Away 15.7%
xG (showing): Liverpool 2.19 — Sunderland 1.04 (total xG ≈ 3.23)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.4% · Over 2.5 62.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 58.6% · No 41.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 58.6% · No 41.4%
Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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