Reyady Abaseya vs Racing Statistics & Analysis

Reyady Abaseya

Jul 13, 2026 - 13:00

4 1.45

0 1.01

xG Accuracy: 38%

Racing

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Reyady Abaseya Reyady Abaseya ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1476996

Closing Odds 1.17

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Reyady Abaseya win · Reyady Abaseya 4–0 Racing

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Racing (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 12.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Reyady Abaseya (1X2)	55.8	75.9	-20.1
Draw (1X2)	26.1	15.5	+10.5
Racing (1X2)	18.1	8.6	+9.6
Over 2.5 goals	44.6	56.6	-12.0
Under 2.5 goals	55.4	43.4	+12.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 55.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.4%. The difference — about 12.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Reyady Abaseya (1X2)	1.17	1.17
Draw (1X2)	5.71	5.71
Racing (1X2)	10.33	10.33
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	2.11	2.11

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Reyady Abaseya vs Racing
Kickoff: 2026-07-13 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 55.8% · Draw 26.1% · Away 18.1%
xG (showing): Reyady Abaseya 1.45 — Racing 1.01 (total xG ≈ 2.46)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Al Ansar	21	17	2	2	53
2	Al Nejmeh	21	14	4	3	46
3	Al Ahed	21	13	1	7	40
4	Jwaaya FC	21	11	5	5	38
5	Safa	21	11	3	7	36
6	Al Hikma	21	9	3	9	30
7	Shabab Al Sahel	21	7	6	8	27
8	Al Mabarrah	21	5	7	9	22
9	Reyady Abaseya	21	5	5	11	20
10	Tadamon Sour	21	3	8	10	17
11	Bourj	11	3	1	7	10
12	Racing	21	0	1	20	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Al Ansar	21	53	9	+44	53
2	Al Nejmeh	21	42	10	+32	46
3	Al Ahed	21	34	22	+12	40
4	Jwaaya FC	21	31	14	+17	38
5	Safa	21	30	17	+13	36
6	Al Hikma	21	29	27	+2	30
7	Shabab Al Sahel	21	22	21	+1	27
8	Reyady Abaseya	21	16	30	-14	20
9	Tadamon Sour	21	12	26	-14	17
10	Al Mabarrah	21	12	36	-24	22
11	Bourj	11	8	20	-12	10
12	Racing	21	4	61	-57	1