Statistics / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds

Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds Statistics & Analysis

Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town
Aug 31, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.42
3 1.18
xG Accuracy: 52%
Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Carmarthen Town Trethomas Bluebirds ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5399358

Closing Odds 4.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Trethomas Bluebirds win · Carmarthen Town 2–3 Trethomas Bluebirds
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Carmarthen Town (1X2) 41.0 44.5 -3.5
Draw (1X2) 29.4 22.4 +7.0
Trethomas Bluebirds (1X2) 29.6 33.1 -3.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.2 -16.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.8 +16.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.8%. The difference — about 16.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Carmarthen Town (1X2) 2.06 2.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.09 4.09 0.0
Trethomas Bluebirds (1X2) 2.77 2.77 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.45 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.6 2.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Carmarthen Town vs Trethomas Bluebirds
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Carmarthen Town 1.42 — Trethomas Bluebirds 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.1% · Probability edge: +15.7 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 6 5 1 0 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 5 0 1 15
3 Treowen Stars 7 4 1 2 13
4 Pontypridd Town 6 4 1 1 13
5 Baglan Dragons 8 4 1 3 13
6 Carmarthen Town 7 3 2 2 11
7 Caerau (Ely) 7 3 1 3 10
8 Afan Lido 8 3 1 4 10
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 2 3 2 9
10 Ynyshir Albions 6 2 3 1 9
11 Caerphilly Athletic 7 2 2 3 8
12 Cardiff Draconians 5 2 1 2 7
13 Newport City 5 2 0 3 6
14 Pontardawe Town 6 1 0 5 3
15 llanelli AFC 8 0 2 6 2
16 Llantwit Major 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 6 22 5 +17 16
2 Aberystwyth Town 6 19 7 +12 15
3 Carmarthen Town 7 17 16 +1 11
4 Treowen Stars 7 16 10 +6 13
5 Pontypridd Town 6 16 11 +5 13
6 Caerau (Ely) 7 16 17 -1 10
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 7 14 13 +1 9
8 Afan Lido 8 13 15 -2 10
9 Newport City 5 9 5 +4 6
10 Baglan Dragons 8 8 8 0 13
11 Cardiff Draconians 5 7 8 -1 7
12 Caerphilly Athletic 7 7 12 -5 8
13 Ynyshir Albions 6 6 5 +1 9
14 llanelli AFC 8 6 23 -17 2
15 Pontardawe Town 6 5 13 -8 3
16 Llantwit Major 5 2 15 -13 1
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions