1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Trethomas Bluebirds
- Model probability
- 36.1%
- Market probability
- 31.2%
- Difference
- +4.9 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -2.3%
No Value Edge
Newport City vs Trethomas Bluebirds Prediction
Model leans Trethomas Bluebirds, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
No Primary Bet
3.0/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Market Quality Risk
Consensus EV
+21.7%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
4.9 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
79/100 · High
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 36.1% |
| Market (no-vig) | 31.2% |
| Difference | +4.9 pp |
The market has repriced Newport City, but the model still strongly favours Trethomas Bluebirds.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Decision Model probability exceeds market expectationDecision Model 36.1% vs Market 31.2%
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+21.7%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Trethomas Bluebirds
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market pricing conflicts with the model favourite
Market Intelligence
No market-move signal tracked for this fixture yet.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Under 2.5
- Model probability (Under)
- 51.8%
- Market probability (Under)
- 40.6%
- Difference
- +11.2 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -5.3%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (No)
- Lean
- No
- Model probability
- 45.5%
- Market probability
- 38.4%
- Difference
- +7.1 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -5.8%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 54.5%
BTTS No 45.5%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 12.5%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 12.5%
- Difference
- +0.0 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- +0.0%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 12.5%
- 0-1 9.8%
- 1-0 9.5%
- 1-2 8.3%
- 2-1 8.0%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Waiting for kickoff
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 2.11
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing 2.11
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV +0.0 pp
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Trethomas Bluebirds at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.2%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Trethomas Bluebirds as the value side (36.1%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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