Statistics / Football / Portugal. Segunda Liga / Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves Statistics & Analysis

Lusitânia Lourosa Lusitânia Lourosa
Oct 11, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Chaves Chaves
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chaves Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13191565

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.53 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE20 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Chaves (1X2) by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Lusitânia Lourosa (1X2) 34.7 48.9 -14.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 26.6 +3.1
Chaves (1X2) 35.6 24.5 +11.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 35.6% on Chaves (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.5%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: betboom br → bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Lusitânia Lourosa (1X2) 1.96 1.85 +1.5
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.4 -1.5
Chaves (1X2) 3.8 3.7 +0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda Liga
  • Fixture: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Lusitânia Lourosa 1.29 — Chaves 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +3.3 pts · Est. EV: +2.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lusitânia Lourosa 7 5 2 0 17
2 Sporting CP B 7 5 0 2 15
3 Farense 7 4 2 1 14
4 Penafiel 7 4 1 2 13
5 Benfica B 7 4 1 2 13
6 Academica 7 4 0 3 12
7 Tondela 7 4 0 3 12
8 Vizela 7 3 2 2 11
9 União de Leiria 7 3 1 3 10
10 Leixoes 7 3 1 3 10
11 Portimonense 7 3 1 3 10
12 AVS 7 2 3 2 9
13 FC Porto B 7 2 1 4 7
14 Felgueiras 1932 7 1 3 3 6
15 Torreense 7 1 3 3 6
16 Amarante 7 1 2 4 5
17 Chaves 7 1 2 4 5
18 Feirense 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Penafiel 7 14 7 +7 13
2 Farense 7 13 6 +7 14
3 Lusitânia Lourosa 7 12 5 +7 17
4 Sporting CP B 7 10 6 +4 15
5 União de Leiria 7 10 9 +1 10
6 Academica 7 10 10 0 12
7 Leixoes 7 9 8 +1 10
8 Benfica B 7 8 5 +3 13
9 Tondela 7 8 6 +2 12
10 AVS 7 8 7 +1 9
11 Vizela 7 7 6 +1 11
12 Torreense 7 7 10 -3 6
13 Portimonense 7 6 7 -1 10
14 Amarante 7 6 10 -4 5
15 FC Porto B 7 6 14 -8 7
16 Chaves 7 6 14 -8 5
17 Felgueiras 1932 7 5 7 -2 6
18 Feirense 7 2 10 -8 1
Segunda Liga Portugal. Segunda Liga Predictions