Statistics / Football / Portugal. Segunda Liga / União de Leiria vs Academica

União de Leiria vs Academica Statistics & Analysis

União de Leiria União de Leiria
Oct 11, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Academica Academica
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 União de Leiria Academica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13232817

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Academica win · União de Leiria 0–2 Academica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Academica (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Academica (1X2) by about 9.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
União de Leiria (1X2) 36.1 47.2 -11.1
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.9 +1.8
Academica (1X2) 34.2 24.9 +9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Academica (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.9%. The difference — about 9.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE10 · Book: bet365 us

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
União de Leiria (1X2) 1.95 1.95 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.3 3.3 0.0
Academica (1X2) 3.7 3.7 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda Liga
  • Fixture: União de Leiria vs Academica
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): União de Leiria 1.32 — Academica 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lusitânia Lourosa 6 5 1 0 16
2 Sporting CP B 7 5 0 2 15
3 Penafiel 7 4 1 2 13
4 Tondela 7 4 0 3 12
5 Farense 6 3 2 1 11
6 Vizela 7 3 2 2 11
7 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 10
8 União de Leiria 6 3 1 2 10
9 Leixoes 7 3 1 3 10
10 Portimonense 7 3 1 3 10
11 AVS 7 2 3 2 9
12 Academica 6 3 0 3 9
13 FC Porto B 7 2 1 4 7
14 Felgueiras 1932 6 1 3 2 6
15 Torreense 7 1 3 3 6
16 Amarante 7 1 2 4 5
17 Chaves 6 1 1 4 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Penafiel 7 14 7 +7 13
2 Lusitânia Lourosa 6 11 4 +7 16
3 Farense 6 11 5 +6 11
4 Sporting CP B 7 10 6 +4 15
5 União de Leiria 6 10 7 +3 10
6 Leixoes 7 9 8 +1 10
7 Tondela 7 8 6 +2 12
8 AVS 7 8 7 +1 9
9 Academica 6 8 10 -2 9
10 Benfica B 6 7 5 +2 10
11 Vizela 7 7 6 +1 11
12 Torreense 7 7 10 -3 6
13 Portimonense 7 6 7 -1 10
14 Amarante 7 6 10 -4 5
15 FC Porto B 7 6 14 -8 7
16 Felgueiras 1932 6 5 6 -1 6
17 Chaves 6 5 13 -8 4
18 Feirense 6 1 8 -7 1