Statistics / Football / Portugal. Segunda Liga / Amarante vs Portimonense

Amarante vs Portimonense Statistics & Analysis

Amarante Amarante
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 74%
Portimonense Portimonense
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Amarante Portimonense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13210536

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Portimonense win · Amarante 1–2 Portimonense
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda Liga
  • Fixture: Amarante vs Portimonense
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Amarante 1.34 — Portimonense 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.4% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lusitânia Lourosa 6 5 1 0 16
2 Sporting CP B 7 5 0 2 15
3 Penafiel 7 4 1 2 13
4 Tondela 7 4 0 3 12
5 Farense 6 3 2 1 11
6 Vizela 7 3 2 2 11
7 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 10
8 União de Leiria 6 3 1 2 10
9 Leixoes 7 3 1 3 10
10 Portimonense 7 3 1 3 10
11 AVS 7 2 3 2 9
12 Academica 6 3 0 3 9
13 FC Porto B 7 2 1 4 7
14 Felgueiras 1932 6 1 3 2 6
15 Torreense 7 1 3 3 6
16 Amarante 7 1 2 4 5
17 Chaves 6 1 1 4 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Penafiel 7 14 7 +7 13
2 Lusitânia Lourosa 6 11 4 +7 16
3 Farense 6 11 5 +6 11
4 Sporting CP B 7 10 6 +4 15
5 União de Leiria 6 10 7 +3 10
6 Leixoes 7 9 8 +1 10
7 Tondela 7 8 6 +2 12
8 AVS 7 8 7 +1 9
9 Academica 6 8 10 -2 9
10 Benfica B 6 7 5 +2 10
11 Vizela 7 7 6 +1 11
12 Torreense 7 7 10 -3 6
13 Portimonense 7 6 7 -1 10
14 Amarante 7 6 10 -4 5
15 FC Porto B 7 6 14 -8 7
16 Felgueiras 1932 6 5 6 -1 6
17 Chaves 6 5 13 -8 4
18 Feirense 6 1 8 -7 1
Segunda Liga Portugal. Segunda Liga Predictions