Statistics / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Famalicao vs Alverca

Famalicao vs Alverca Statistics & Analysis

Famalicao Famalicao
Oct 12, 2026 - 19:15
1 0.99
4 0.77
xG Accuracy: 41%
Alverca Alverca
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Famalicao Alverca ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 07, 2026 · 02:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13673484

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alverca win · Famalicao 1–4 Alverca
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Famalicao vs Alverca
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-12 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.5% · Draw 33.9% · Away 24.5%
  • xG (showing): Famalicao 0.99 — Alverca 0.77 (total xG ≈ 1.76)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 74.1% · Implied: 52.8% · Probability edge: +21.3 pts · Est. EV: +36.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 35.4% · No 64.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (17.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 8 8 0 0 24
2 Benfica 8 6 1 1 19
3 Sporting CP 8 5 3 0 18
4 Santa Clara 8 5 3 0 18
5 Arouca 8 4 2 2 14
6 Academico Viseu 8 4 2 2 14
7 GIL Vicente 7 3 2 2 11
8 Alverca 8 3 2 3 11
9 SC Braga 7 3 2 2 11
10 Estrela 8 2 4 2 10
11 Maritimo 8 2 2 4 8
12 Moreirense 8 2 2 4 8
13 Famalicao 8 1 4 3 7
14 Rio Ave 8 2 1 5 7
15 Guimaraes 8 1 2 5 5
16 Nacional 8 1 1 6 4
17 Casa Pia 8 1 1 6 4
18 Estoril 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 8 24 7 +17 19
2 FC Porto 8 20 4 +16 24
3 Sporting CP 8 20 9 +11 18
4 Estrela 8 14 15 -1 10
5 Alverca 8 13 12 +1 11
6 Santa Clara 8 12 4 +8 18
7 Arouca 8 11 7 +4 14
8 Academico Viseu 8 11 10 +1 14
9 Famalicao 8 10 11 -1 7
10 Maritimo 8 9 14 -5 8
11 Nacional 8 9 18 -9 4
12 SC Braga 7 8 8 0 11
13 Moreirense 8 8 15 -7 8
14 Rio Ave 8 8 17 -9 7
15 GIL Vicente 7 6 5 +1 11
16 Guimaraes 8 5 10 -5 5
17 Estoril 8 4 12 -8 2
18 Casa Pia 8 3 17 -14 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 8 10.9 2.1 +8.8 19
2 FC Porto 8 11.2 3.9 +7.3 24
3 GIL Vicente 7 6.9 2.8 +4.1 11
4 Santa Clara 8 7.9 4.2 +3.7 18
5 Sporting CP 8 6.8 4.3 +2.5 18
6 SC Braga 7 3.3 1.4 +1.9 11
7 Guimaraes 8 7.2 5.6 +1.6 5
8 Alverca 8 6.8 5.9 +0.9 11
9 Estrela 8 5.8 6.0 -0.2 10
10 Maritimo 8 5.1 6.9 -1.8 8
11 Arouca 8 5.6 7.8 -2.2 14
12 Estoril 8 4.8 7.0 -2.2 2
13 Moreirense 8 2.1 5.4 -3.3 8
14 Nacional 8 5.8 9.2 -3.4 4
15 Famalicao 8 3.7 7.2 -3.5 7
16 Casa Pia 8 2.8 7.0 -4.2 4
17 Academico Viseu 8 5.7 10.4 -4.7 14
18 Rio Ave 8 4.0 9.5 -5.5 7
Primeira Liga Portugal. Primeira Liga Predictions