Statistics / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Statistics & Analysis

Casa Pia Casa Pia
Oct 10, 2026 - 19:30
0 0.63
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 75%
Santa Clara Santa Clara
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Santa Clara Santa Clara ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13234218

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Santa Clara win · Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 15.3% · Draw 30.6% · Away 54.1%
  • xG (showing): Casa Pia 0.63 — Santa Clara 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.03)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 63.3% · Implied: 51.5% · Probability edge: +11.8 pts · Est. EV: +18.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.7% · No 63.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (18.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Casa Pia & Santa Clara!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 11
6 SC Braga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 11
8 Estrela 7 2 4 1 10
9 GIL Vicente 6 2 2 2 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 7
14 Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 22 7 +15 16
2 FC Porto 7 18 3 +15 21
3 Sporting CP 7 17 8 +9 15
4 Estrela 7 14 14 0 10
5 Santa Clara 7 11 4 +7 15
6 Arouca 7 10 7 +3 11
7 Famalicao 7 9 7 +2 7
8 Academico Viseu 7 9 9 0 11
9 Alverca 7 9 11 -2 8
10 Maritimo 7 8 12 -4 8
11 Moreirense 7 8 14 -6 8
12 SC Braga 6 7 5 +2 11
13 Nacional 7 7 15 -8 4
14 GIL Vicente 6 5 5 0 8
15 Guimaraes 7 5 8 -3 5
16 Rio Ave 7 5 15 -10 4
17 Estoril 7 3 10 -7 2
18 Casa Pia 7 3 16 -13 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 11.0 2.1 +8.9 16
2 FC Porto 7 11.2 3.9 +7.3 21
3 GIL Vicente 6 6.9 2.8 +4.1 8
4 Santa Clara 7 7.9 4.2 +3.7 15
5 Sporting CP 7 6.8 4.3 +2.5 15
6 SC Braga 6 3.3 1.4 +1.9 11
7 Guimaraes 7 7.3 5.7 +1.6 5
8 Estrela 7 5.9 6.0 -0.1 10
9 Famalicao 7 3.3 4.2 -0.9 7
10 Alverca 7 3.9 5.5 -1.6 8
11 Maritimo 7 5.1 6.9 -1.8 8
12 Estoril 7 4.8 7.0 -2.2 2
13 Arouca 7 5.6 7.9 -2.3 11
14 Moreirense 7 2.1 5.4 -3.3 8
15 Nacional 7 5.8 9.2 -3.4 4
16 Casa Pia 7 2.8 7.0 -4.2 4
17 Academico Viseu 7 5.7 10.4 -4.7 11
18 Rio Ave 7 4.1 9.6 -5.5 4