Statistics / Football / Spain. La Liga / Villarreal vs Real Betis

Villarreal vs Real Betis Statistics & Analysis

Villarreal Villarreal
Sep 14, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.93
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 62%
Real Betis Real Betis
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Villarreal Real Betis ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573721

Closing Odds 3.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Real Betis win · Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.96 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Villarreal (1X2) 53.2 48.2 +5.1
Draw (1X2) 24.8 24.6 +0.2
Real Betis (1X2) 22.0 27.3 -5.3
Over 2.5 goals 60.3 66.7 -6.4
Under 2.5 goals 39.7 33.3 +6.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 39.7% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.3%. The difference — about 6.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Villarreal (1X2) 2.01 2.02 -0.2
Draw (1X2) 3.94 3.96 -0.1
Real Betis (1X2) 3.62 3.57 +0.4
Over 2.5 goals 1.57 1.44 +5.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.53 2.88 -5.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: La Liga
  • Fixture: Villarreal vs Real Betis
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 53.2% · Draw 24.8% · Away 22.0%
  • xG (showing): Villarreal 1.93 — Real Betis 1.19 (total xG ≈ 3.12)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 39.7% · Implied: 36.4% · Probability edge: +3.3 pts · Est. EV: +14.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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La Liga La Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona 5 5 0 0 15
2 Real Madrid 5 4 0 1 12
3 Alaves 5 3 1 1 10
4 Atletico Madrid 5 3 1 1 10
5 Sevilla 5 3 1 1 10
6 Deportivo La Coruna 5 2 3 0 9
7 Real Betis 4 3 0 1 9
8 Espanyol 5 2 1 2 7
9 Athletic Club 5 2 1 2 7
10 Racing Santander 5 2 1 2 7
11 Osasuna 5 2 1 2 7
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 7
13 Levante 5 1 2 2 5
14 Getafe 5 1 2 2 5
15 Celta Vigo 6 0 4 2 4
16 Rayo Vallecano 5 1 1 3 4
17 Malaga 5 0 3 2 3
18 Villarreal 4 0 2 2 2
19 Elche 5 0 2 3 2
20 Valencia 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 5 21 4 +17 15
2 Real Madrid 5 14 4 +10 12
3 Alaves 5 11 5 +6 10
4 Atletico Madrid 5 10 6 +4 10
5 Deportivo La Coruna 5 9 6 +3 9
6 Racing Santander 5 9 9 0 7
7 Espanyol 5 8 5 +3 7
8 Sevilla 5 8 6 +2 10
9 Rayo Vallecano 5 8 14 -6 4
10 Athletic Club 5 7 6 +1 7
11 Levante 5 7 9 -2 5
12 Villarreal 4 6 8 -2 2
13 Real Sociedad 6 6 11 -5 7
14 Elche 5 6 13 -7 2
15 Real Betis 4 5 5 0 9
16 Osasuna 5 5 8 -3 7
17 Getafe 5 3 6 -3 5
18 Celta Vigo 6 3 6 -3 4
19 Malaga 5 2 8 -6 3
20 Valencia 5 1 10 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 5 14.9 2.7 +12.2 15
2 Real Madrid 5 5.7 1.8 +3.9 12
3 Osasuna 5 6.7 3.3 +3.4 7
4 Alaves 5 5.8 3.6 +2.2 10
5 Racing Santander 5 4.5 3.1 +1.4 7
6 Villarreal 4 7.6 7.0 +0.6 2
7 Espanyol 5 2.8 2.2 +0.6 7
8 Real Betis 4 7.2 7.4 -0.2 9
9 Levante 5 5.4 5.7 -0.3 5
10 Sevilla 5 3.7 4.2 -0.5 10
11 Malaga 5 4.3 5.1 -0.8 3
12 Athletic Club 5 4.1 4.9 -0.8 7
13 Real Sociedad 6 3.6 5.0 -1.4 7
14 Deportivo La Coruna 5 2.9 4.7 -1.8 9
15 Atletico Madrid 5 2.5 4.7 -2.2 10
16 Elche 5 3.2 6.0 -2.8 2
17 Getafe 5 2.8 5.6 -2.8 5
18 Valencia 5 3.7 6.9 -3.2 1
19 Rayo Vallecano 5 3.5 7.0 -3.5 4
20 Celta Vigo 6 2.4 6.5 -4.1 4
La Liga Spain. La Liga Predictions