Predictions / Football / Spain. La Liga / Villarreal vs Levante

Prediction Audit: Villarreal vs Levante Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Villarreal Villarreal
Sep 20, 2026 - 16:30
3 1.73
1 1.75
xG Accuracy: 57%
Levante Levante

The model missed the final outcome (Villarreal win 3–1).

The model had projected Levante at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Levante Villarreal ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Villarreal higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Villarreal -26.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Villarreal 37.2% 63.6% -26.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 24.8% 19.7% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Levante 38.0% 16.7% +21.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Villarreal's win probability at 63.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.2%, a difference of 26.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Villarreal win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.48) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Levante; match finished Villarreal
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Levante by 26.4 percentage points (64.4% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Villarreal 37.2% · Draw 24.8% · Levante 38.0%
    • xG · Villarreal 1.73 — Levante 1.75
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Villarreal 1.53 · Draw 4.87 · Levante 5.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Villarreal 63.1% · Draw 19.8% · Levante 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Villarreal 1.52 · Draw 4.91 · Levante 5.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Villarreal 63.6% · Draw 19.7% · Levante 16.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Villarreal win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8692289

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Villarreal win · Villarreal 3–1 Levante
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: La Liga
  • Fixture: Villarreal vs Levante
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.2% · Draw 24.8% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Villarreal 1.73 — Levante 1.75 (total xG ≈ 3.48)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 69.2% · Implied: 60.6% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 69.2% · No 30.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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La Liga La Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona 7 7 0 0 21
2 Atletico Madrid 7 5 1 1 16
3 Real Betis 7 5 1 1 16
4 Real Madrid 7 5 0 2 15
5 Sevilla 7 4 1 2 13
6 Alaves 7 3 2 2 11
7 Deportivo La Coruna 7 2 4 1 10
8 Real Sociedad 7 3 1 3 10
9 Villarreal 7 2 2 3 8
10 Athletic Club 6 2 2 2 8
11 Getafe 7 2 2 3 8
12 Rayo Vallecano 7 2 2 3 8
13 Osasuna 7 2 2 3 8
14 Celta Vigo 7 1 4 2 7
15 Espanyol 7 2 1 4 7
16 Racing Santander 7 2 1 4 7
17 Levante 6 1 2 3 5
18 Elche 7 1 2 4 5
19 Valencia 7 1 1 5 4
20 Malaga 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 7 31 7 +24 21
2 Real Madrid 7 18 8 +10 15
3 Atletico Madrid 7 16 7 +9 16
4 Villarreal 7 13 12 +1 8
5 Alaves 7 11 6 +5 11
6 Rayo Vallecano 7 11 16 -5 8
7 Elche 7 11 17 -6 5
8 Racing Santander 7 11 21 -10 7
9 Deportivo La Coruna 7 10 8 +2 10
10 Sevilla 7 10 9 +1 13
11 Espanyol 7 10 10 0 7
12 Real Betis 7 9 7 +2 16
13 Real Sociedad 7 9 13 -4 10
14 Celta Vigo 7 8 6 +2 7
15 Levante 6 8 12 -4 5
16 Athletic Club 6 7 6 +1 8
17 Osasuna 7 6 13 -7 8
18 Getafe 7 4 7 -3 8
19 Valencia 7 4 13 -9 4
20 Malaga 7 3 12 -9 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 7 14.9 2.7 +12.2 21
2 Real Madrid 7 5.7 1.8 +3.9 15
3 Osasuna 7 6.7 3.3 +3.4 8
4 Alaves 7 5.8 3.6 +2.2 11
5 Racing Santander 7 4.5 3.1 +1.4 7
6 Villarreal 7 7.6 7.0 +0.6 8
7 Espanyol 7 2.8 2.2 +0.6 7
8 Real Betis 7 7.2 7.4 -0.2 16
9 Levante 6 5.4 5.7 -0.3 5
10 Sevilla 7 3.7 4.2 -0.5 13
11 Malaga 7 4.3 5.1 -0.8 3
12 Athletic Club 6 4.1 4.9 -0.8 8
13 Real Sociedad 7 3.6 5.0 -1.4 10
14 Deportivo La Coruna 7 2.9 4.7 -1.8 10
15 Atletico Madrid 7 2.5 4.7 -2.2 16
16 Elche 7 3.2 6.0 -2.8 5
17 Getafe 7 2.8 5.6 -2.8 8
18 Valencia 7 3.7 6.9 -3.2 4
19 Rayo Vallecano 7 3.5 7.0 -3.5 8
20 Celta Vigo 7 2.4 6.5 -4.1 7